Carnival: Not Worth The Risk

seekingalpha2021-02-24

Summary Carnival is still struggling to restate cruises with most departures delayed until after April 30. The cruise line sold another 40.5 million shares to raise $1 billion as the company has ...

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Comments

Tchua
2021-02-25
Tchua
Anyone looking to accumulate this? And what travel stocks are your looking at?
bbarbanida
2021-02-24
bbarbanida
How to get the coin? Lol
onezero
2021-02-24
onezero
Ok
Silverone
2021-02-24
Silverone
Following
小熊家族
2021-02-24
小熊家族
Does this mean the pandemic is over is over?
sesemike74
2021-02-24
sesemike74
Good

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCarnival: Not Worth The Risk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 15:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408453-carnival-not-worth-the-risk><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nCarnival is still struggling to restate cruises with most departures delayed until after April 30.\nThe cruise line sold another 40.5 million shares to raise $1 billion as the company has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408453-carnival-not-worth-the-risk\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CCL","symbol_name":"嘉年华邮轮","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408453-carnival-not-worth-the-risk","article_id":"1103409582","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103409582","pubTimestamp":1614150277,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nCarnival is still struggling to restate cruises with most departures delayed until after Ap","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"translate_title":"嘉年华邮轮：不值得冒险","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CCL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nCarnival is still struggling to restate cruises with most departures delayed until after April 30.\nThe cruise line sold another 40.5 million shares to raise $1 billion as the company has forecasted burning cash at a rate of $600 million per month.\nThe stock isn't worth the risk here with a $25+ billion valuation and the stock already topping $25.\n\nThe cruise line sector has seen a stock boost in the last few weeks, but the sector remains mostly on the sidelines with ships docked.Carnival Corp.(CCL) even used the rally to raise more cash via selling equity, in another sign the company isn't ready for prime time. Myinvestment thesisremains mixed on the cruise line stock as less risky opportunities exist elsewhere.\nImage Source: Carnival website\nDilution Galore\nAs the stock surged past $25, Carnival rushed out another equity offering. The company raised another $1 billion selling~40.5 million sharesat $25.10 per share. The market valuation topping $25 billion now, so the dilution was limited to ~4%.\n\nCarnival sold $2.5 billion worth of shares in at-the-market offerings in September and November. In essence, the cruise line has sold $3.5 billion worth of shares since the start of September plus converted $1.5 billion of debt into shares.\nThe cruise line couldn't wait to rush out the equity offering after the stock rose 6% on the prior day following positive bookings comments on the Royal Caribbean (RCL) earnings call and general market sentiment on the reopening trade in sector stocks and related categories like airlines. The cruise line lost $1.1 billion during the December quarter, but the company saw a 30% increase in new bookings this year compared to November and December per CFO Jason Liberty:\n\n Despite the lack of marketing spend, we have seen a 30% increase in new bookings since the beginning of the year when compared to November and December.\n\n\n The cumulative book position for sailings in the second half of 2021 is aligned with our expectations in terms of resumption of cruising with pricing higher than 2019, both including and excluding the dilutive impact of future cruise credits. It is probably too early in the booking window to talk too much about 2022, but behavior to date is quite similar to booking activities in previous years. Our book position for the first half of 2022 is within historical ranges at higher average prices.\n\nThe problem with the sector is that the vast majority of the industry is still shut down. Canada doesn't want cruises to restart this year and Carnival has already pushed out U.S. voyages until after April 30 with West Coast operations paused for more lengthy periods. Even P&O Cruises Australia is already paused until June 18 at the earliest.\nThe vaccine rollout could change the story along with the lower COVID-19 case counts. As of February 22, the CDC reports 44 million people have received a vaccine now with 19 million already getting a 2nd dose. Whether due to the vaccine rollout or not, the reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are down substantially since the holiday break.\nAll of these numbers are good and in line with why future bookings are strong, but the cruise line still isn't back in business. Something could still upset the apple cart again that delays voyages.\nStruggling Finances\nThe whole reason Carnival was difficult to buy all of 2020 is the very reason the cruise line needed to raise another $1 billion and again dilute shareholders. The company is still burning millions in cash on a daily basis with no meaningful operations restarting in at least a couple of months.\nThe recent rally allows Carnival to sell stock at a much better valuation, but a shareholder can't rely on such a scenario. If the stock had fallen the last couple of months, the company could've diluted shares by up to 10% to raise the same $1 billion.\nThe risk was that the stock would take off, but my view was that airlines such as Spirit Airlines(SAVE) provided better value without the same issue with restarting operations. Back in November, the airline was already flying at capacity levels near 75% of 2019 levels and didn't have the same regulatory risks of health organizations shutting down the industry. While Carnival has done exceptionally well during this period, Spirit Airlines has easily outperformed.\nData by YCharts\nEven now, Carnival remains mostly on pause until at least May with a vast majority of the business delayed long into 2021. More importantly, the investment story still has a ton of risk considering the lack of data showing cruises are safe in comparison to the wealth of data on flights.\nCarnival was last forecasted as burning cash at a rate of $600 million per month for FQ1'21 starting in December. The cash burn rate was forecasted to increase from $500 million per month in FQ4'20 due to capital expenses.\nEvery month of delays places the company in line for more stock dilution. The cruise line ended November with $9.5 billion in cash on the balance sheet with mounting debt levels. Carnival could easily burn somewhere around $2.4 billion just in the period before cruises could resume on May 1. This amount doesn't even include cash to restart operations and cash burn rates for the ramp-up period before the cruise line gets back to break-even levels.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Carnival still faces a risky future as the cruise line struggles to reopen operations. Sometimes, investors have to let stocks run without them due to the risks and better opportunities in other sectors.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":361807275,"gmtCreate":1614217943297,"gmtModify":1704889694731,"author":{"id":"3561859229387101","authorId":"3561859229387101","name":"Tchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245ba7d1360ad877e076f09e9d78c378","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561859229387101","authorIdStr":"3561859229387101"},"htmlText":"Anyone looking to accumulate this? And what travel stocks are your looking at?","listText":"Anyone looking to accumulate this? And what travel stocks are your looking at?","text":"Anyone looking to accumulate this? And what travel stocks are your looking at?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361807275","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":363740707,"gmtCreate":1614175844809,"gmtModify":1704889121782,"author":{"id":"3574927293930643","authorId":"3574927293930643","name":"bbarbanida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01f52f19397d96d0028b5d04b525509","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574927293930643","authorIdStr":"3574927293930643"},"htmlText":"How to get the coin? Lol","listText":"How to get the coin? Lol","text":"How to get the coin? Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363740707","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":363567583,"gmtCreate":1614156730642,"gmtModify":1704888818227,"author":{"id":"3574321920996186","authorId":"3574321920996186","name":"onezero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a6fcdcf896cad792f2b119c43dbff5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574321920996186","authorIdStr":"3574321920996186"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363567583","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":363515618,"gmtCreate":1614153067334,"gmtModify":1704888788537,"author":{"id":"3557140772478650","authorId":"3557140772478650","name":"Silverone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c607a10a86c5096e3885a17e8211f25d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6444b4970948c1077534c593eccd6d16","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557140772478650","authorIdStr":"3557140772478650"},"htmlText":"Following&nbsp;","listText":"Following&nbsp;","text":"Following","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363515618","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":363511620,"gmtCreate":1614152531560,"gmtModify":1704888783176,"author":{"id":"3559646996357772","authorId":"3559646996357772","name":"小熊家族","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a5653b8f67e7f6deae6e1f8cef74bd0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559646996357772","authorIdStr":"3559646996357772"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Does this mean the pandemic&nbsp;is over is over?","listText":"&nbsp;Does this mean the pandemic&nbsp;is over is over?","text":"Does this mean the pandemic is over is over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363511620","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":363537755,"gmtCreate":1614152040377,"gmtModify":1704888777668,"author":{"id":"3551235452867751","authorId":"3551235452867751","name":"sesemike74","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad875a25492ffa76b4d7bc3fc5eb3dda","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3551235452867751","authorIdStr":"3551235452867751"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363537755","repostId":1103409582,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1103409582"}