Morgan Stanley released a research report indicating that Macau's gaming revenue for December reached MOP 20.9 billion, approximately USD 2.61 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% but a sequential decline of 1%, falling below market expectations. For the entire fourth quarter, Macau's gaming revenue totaled MOP 66.1 billion, around USD 8.26 billion, marking a 15% year-on-year growth and a 5.6% increase from the previous quarter. Fourth-quarter EBITDA is projected to grow by over 10% compared to the same period last year. The report forecasts Macau's full-year 2025 gaming revenue to be MOP 247 billion, approximately USD 31 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, reaching 85% of the 2019 level. Within this, mass market revenue has already surpassed 120% of the 2019 level. Morgan Stanley noted that the enterprise value to EBITDA ratio for the Macau gaming stock sector is 8.5x, which remains attractive compared to the 15-year historical average of 12.8x. The firm expressed a preference for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China Ltd (01928). It has downgraded MGM China (02282) to "Equal-weight" and maintains an "Underweight" rating on SJM Holdings (00880). MGM China significantly underperformed in December, although there may be an opportunity for a short-term rebound.
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