Goldman Sachs has issued a research report upgrading SINOTRUK (03808) from "Sell" to "Buy," while substantially raising its target price from HK$21 to HK$51. This revision is primarily driven by the company's stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of last year, which saw a 40% year-on-year increase in net profit. The results indicate a more robust recovery in heavy truck export sales than anticipated, effectively offsetting pressures on profit margins. The report notes that SINOTRUK continues to expand its market share in export markets, accounting for 45% of China's heavy truck exports by 2025. Management has expressed confidence in achieving its 2026 performance targets, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 125.5 billion and a pre-tax profit margin of 8.5%. Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2027 by 28% to 33% to reflect the strength of the export business. The firm believes that with sustained momentum in exports and a potential upcycle in the domestic market by 2027, the company's valuation is poised for a re-rating. The new target price implies a 15x price-to-earnings ratio based on 2026 forecasts, up from the previous 8x.
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