Precious metal prices are being pressured by crowded trades, the new Federal Reserve Chair appointment, and declines in U.S. technology stocks. The nomination for the new Fed Chair has been announced, and his policy direction will have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. Looking ahead to 2026, central bank gold purchases and the rising share of gold ETF holdings will continue to be crucial factors supporting gold prices. The London silver leasing rate has declined somewhat, but the pace of U.S. silver inventory drawdowns is rapid. Donald Trump's nomination of the relatively hawkish Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair has spurred market expectations of balance sheet reduction and a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on copper prices. The market is expected to continue digesting macro adjustment pressures in the near term; however, the AI narrative persists, supply disruptions are frequent, and against the backdrop of a potentially widening global copper mine deficit, prices have underlying support. The main views of GTHT are as follows: Precious metals experienced significant price volatility, with attention turning to changes brought by the new Fed Chair. Prices are being suppressed by crowded trading positions, the new Fed Chair appointment, and the downturn in U.S. tech stocks. The nomination has been made, and his governance path will significantly influence the dollar and U.S. bonds. The outlook for 2026 suggests that central bank gold buying and increasing gold ETF holdings will remain key pillars for gold prices. While the London silver lease rate has dipped, U.S. silver inventories are falling at a faster clip. Macro "hawkish" sentiment is disturbing market mood, but solid supply-demand fundamentals provide price support for copper. Trump's nomination of the hawkish-leaning Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has fueled expectations of quantitative tightening and a stronger dollar, pressuring copper prices downward. The market will continue to absorb macro correction pressures recently; nevertheless, the AI story remains intact, supply disruptions are common, and with the global copper deficit likely to expand, downside price movement is cushioned. Macro sentiment is cooling, putting some pressure on aluminum prices. On the macro front, pressured declines in U.S. stocks have led to tighter liquidity, compounded by short-term precious metals being suppressed by policy tightening expectations, causing a cooling of bullish sentiment and a pullback in aluminum prices after earlier gains. Fundamentally, the combined effect of the Spring Festival and high aluminum prices is pressuring operating rates downward; this week's comprehensive operating rate for aluminum processing fell by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week to 59.4%. Regarding inventory, continued stock accumulation during the off-season is exerting some suppression on aluminum price increases. Supply return expectations are creating a resonance, shifting the logic of tin prices towards "de-premiumization." Tin prices recently experienced a significant correction due to fading macro sentiment and a stampede of long positions. As Indonesia's RKAB approval process returns to normalcy and exchange trading becomes active, coupled with high ore prices accelerating the resumption of production in Myanmar, concerns about supply "cut-offs" have significantly eased. Combined with downstream观望 sentiment towards high-priced tin ingots, tin price drivers are switching from "panic-driven" to a track of "supply-demand normalization." Faster inventory drawdowns indicate robust demand for energy metals. Lithium Carbonate: Inventory continued to decline last week (week of Jan 30). Against a backdrop of seasonally lower production, inventories have been consistently drawn down. As the export tax rebate for battery products is expected to be reduced, battery demand may be front-loaded, potentially keeping demand strong even during the off-season. Cobalt Sector: Upstream prices remain high due to tight raw material supply, while downstream demand-side purchasing is cautious. Many cobalt companies are extending into the new energy downstream, creating an integrated cost advantage from cobalt-nickel-precursor-cathode materials, thereby strengthening competitive barriers. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices continue to rise. The supply-demand balance for light rare earths remains tight, supported by pre-holiday stockpiling demand, leading to sustained price increases. The investment value of rare earths as a critical strategic resource remains看好. Strategic attributes of minor metals are becoming prominent. Tungsten: Policy crackdowns combined with inventory restocking have caused tungsten prices to break seasonal weakness and surge powerfully. Strict crackdowns on illegal mining and grey market activities in regions like Jiangxi have exhausted spot ore supply. Coupled with strong pre-holiday restocking of Ammonium Paratungstate (APT), supply-demand contradictions have been sharply amplified against a backdrop of low inventory. Quota constraints limit mine output increases despite high profits, and leading tool manufacturers have successfully passed on costs, with end-user rigid demand showing strong resilience. Short-term transactions may shrink due to the Spring Festival, but supported by high costs and tight supply, tungsten prices are expected to remain firm at high levels. Uranium: Rigid supply and nuclear power development create a persistent uranium supply-demand gap, suggesting natural uranium prices are likely to continue their upward trend. Risk warnings include downstream demand being weaker than expected, substantial supply-side releases, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts falling short of expectations.
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