Ship-tracking data indicates that a crude oil tanker has apparently transited the Strait of Hormuz and is currently en route to Pakistan. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, only a very limited number of vessels have departed the Persian Gulf, and this tanker is among them.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the tanker named "Karachi," controlled by Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, completed the perilous voyage last Sunday. By Monday morning, the Pakistan-flagged Aframax tanker had appeared in waters near Sohar, Oman.
Neither Pakistan National Shipping Corporation nor the country’s petroleum ministry immediately responded to requests for comment.
Since the outbreak of U.S.-Iran conflict last month, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt. Traders are closely monitoring vessels traversing the waterway, attempting to gauge how much crude oil can still pass through this global shipping chokepoint. Under normal circumstances, around 20% of the world’s oil flows through this strait.
Ship-tracking data shows that the Karachi, built in 2022, crossed the Strait of Hormuz and bypassed Iran’s Larak Island. The vessel then sailed eastward close to the Iranian coastline, exiting the strait on Sunday evening. Other vessels leaving the strait also appear to have adopted routes near the Iranian side.
Tracking information indicates the Karachi recently loaded crude oil in the United Arab Emirates.
As the conflict enters its third week, this narrow passage has become a focal point of attention. Iran has conducted attacks along the waterway in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, causing unprecedented disruption to energy trade. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump is closely watching the area, seeking solutions to address the nearly 45% surge in crude oil prices.
Fears among shipowners intensified last Friday after three vessels, including a Thailand-flagged bulk carrier, were attacked in the Persian Gulf. Rahul Kapoor, head of shipping and metals at S&P Global Energy, stated that the Strait of Hormuz is at the epicenter of global geopolitics, with shipping and energy markets signaling that the risk of prolonged disruption is significantly higher than at any time in recent decades.
This outlook is forcing major Asian consumers to seek alternatives to avoid shortages and soaring costs. India has received permission from Tehran to allow two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers to transit the strait over the weekend. This represents a small but significant step to alleviate severe domestic fuel shortages. Both vessels used signaling systems to identify their cargo as belonging to the Indian government.
Turkey also reportedly received approval last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated over the weekend that several countries have approached Tehran seeking safe passage, adding that the strait is closed only to vessels of "enemy" nations. Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized in his first statement last week that Tehran would continue to use the "lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz."
Over the past two weeks, only a handful of vessels have transited the waterway. According to informed sources, even India’s arrangement is one-way, meaning the vessels will not return to load cargo again.
Former President Trump has proposed the idea of maritime escorts and pressured other nations over the weekend, expressing hope that major powers would send naval ships to help keep the waterway open.
The narrowest point of the strait is only about 30 miles wide, significantly limiting maneuvering space and the ability of ships to respond to threats, which could include simultaneous deployment of missiles, unmanned boats, and drones by Iran. The U.K. suggested last week that Iran may have begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan and South Korea face increased pressure to offer support due to their military alliances with Washington and heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated on Monday that Japan is considering how to protect its vessels, but Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi indicated that Tokyo is not currently planning to deploy naval forces. Japan faces constitutional constraints on deploying military assets to conflict zones.
S&P’s Kapoor noted that even if a diplomatic or military solution is found, restoring traffic through the strait could take weeks. He added, "We would need to see 20 to 30 transits per day to signal that the waterway is open. The traffic jam on both sides of the strait will take weeks to clear."
India’s Special Secretary of the Ministry of Shipping, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, said at a press conference on Saturday that 22 Indian-flagged vessels are currently stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, and the government is closely monitoring the situation. These vessels include LPG carriers, crude oil tankers, LNG carriers, and container ships.
Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, believes India has no choice but to negotiate with Tehran to ensure safe passage for its vessels. This is not about politics, she emphasized, but about safeguarding citizens' lives and national energy security. The two Indian LPG vessels that exited the strait last Saturday carried over 92,000 tons of fuel—enough to meet less than one day of India’s demand.
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