On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell to a two-month low as dry weather in the Midwest accelerated the U.S. soybean harvest, prompting funds to liquidate and sell. Tuesday's crop report showed that 64% of the U.S. soybean crop had been harvested, compared with the five-year average of 65%. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed on Tuesday that private exporters sold 612,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China, following confirmation on Monday of 114,000 tons to China and 261,000 tons to unknown destinations. This means that since October 14, five confirmations of sales to China have totaled more than 2 million tons. The bullish demand news partially offset harvest pressure, and U.S. soybean prices drifted lower.
In China, protein meal prices fluctuated and pulled back. Lower import costs and capital outflows triggered a decline in futures prices. The spot market remained loose, with soybean meal inventories at high levels. Hog prices were sluggish, and the market had concerns about forward demand, accelerating the decline in soybean meal spreads. Going forward, the market will continue to monitor soybean costs, soybean meal demand expectations, and capital flows.
On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose, tracking gains in related markets. Shipping data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from October 1 to 20 rose 58.5% to 78.4% month-on-month. Increased purchases by India and the European Union were the main drivers of the improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports. On Tuesday, Canadian rapeseed closed lower, pressured by harvest pressure, weak technicals, and a stronger Canadian dollar. U.S. soybean oil edged higher as rising crude oil prices outweighed pressure from falling U.S. soybeans. The market expects Malaysia to scrap its crude palm oil export tax to boost exports. Palm oil processing plants in Indonesia's West Kalimantan region reduced fresh fruit bunch processing in September because falling river water levels disrupted transportation.
In China, oils and fats fluctuated with an upward bias, and palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly. Overseas oils and fats markets presented mixed signals, with no clear trend. On the spot side, inventory pressure remained relatively heavy, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories at high levels. Traders held firm on prices, and basis levels edged higher. Going forward, the market will continue to monitor geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and end-user consumption.
On Tuesday, hog futures continued to decline, hitting new lows, with a persistent bearish atmosphere in the market. In terms of data, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the national breeding sow herd fell to 36.02 million head at the end of the third quarter of 2026, with the year-on-year decline widening to 10.7%, falling below the normal保有 level red line of 37.5 million head for the first time in a substantive way. The pace of capacity reduction continued to steepen, yet hog prices remained range-bound at low levels. The divergence of "accelerating capacity clearing while prices remain stagnant" has drawn sustained market attention. On October 20, the mainstream transaction price for hogs in the Heilongjiang market was 9.58 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from October 19. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in the hog market persisted. Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the hog market continued to increase weight, spot hog prices declined seasonally, and hog prices came under pressure and adjusted. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remained unchanged, suppressing upward movement in hog prices.
On Tuesday, egg futures prices continued to decline, with the main 2612 contract closing down 3.27% at 3,194 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, data from Zhuochuang showed that as of October 20, the national egg price was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from October 19. In producing areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.5 yuan/jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 3.6 yuan/jin. In sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.75 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.15 yuan/jin, both unchanged from October 19. In the short term, producing-area egg prices may be mostly stable; procurement costs in sales areas were mostly stable, with个别 adjustments up or down. In the short term, with ample supply and no demand highlights, spot prices may continue to show a stable-to-weak performance. Related commodities continued to be weak, and sentiment continued to weigh on egg futures prices.
On Tuesday, corn opened slightly lower and then stabilized and rebounded. On Monday, the main 2701 corn contract gapped lower, essentially erasing earlier gains, with prices continuing to show pressure. On Tuesday, corn futures rebounded slightly, and weighted contract open interest remained basically stable. Over the weekend, some producing areas in Northeast China experienced rainfall, which adversely affected corn harvesting and trading to some extent. Northeast corn prices were mainly weak. Northern port corn prices were also weak. Despite weak prices, port arrivals remained relatively high. With the concentrated listing of Northeast corn, the market remained weak. North China corn stabilized at low levels and then moved in a narrow range, with purchase prices in some Shandong areas fluctuating slightly, and overall volatility narrowing. New-season corn is in its listing period, and with Northeast grain flowing into the region as a supplement,阶段性 supply remained relatively ample, constraining price rebounds. The corn market in sales areas was overall stable, with narrow fluctuations in some areas. During the weekend, weather in producing areas was poor, supply was concentrated, and quotes were weak, which is expected to affect sentiment in sales-area markets. Traders in sales areas were actively willing to sell, downstream enterprises maintained inventories at relatively safe levels, and generally purchased on demand, with no intention of driving up purchase prices. Overall, corn harvesting in North China is basically complete, while Northeast corn is being harvested and listed gradually. After the concentrated supply pressure in North China materialized,阶段性 supply pressure eased somewhat. Corn futures and spot quotes rose first and then fell, and the pressure from the low point of new grain listing supply continued to affect the market's medium- to long-term direction. Technically, since October 14, the January corn contract encountered resistance after rebounding and came under pressure again, with prices showing range-bound weakness.
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