On February 9, A-shares experienced a significant surge overnight. Global markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking through the 50,000-point mark. The Shanghai Composite Index gained over 1%, while the ChiNext and STAR indices rose more than 2%. Ninety-nine stocks hit the daily limit up, and 137 stocks advanced over 9%. Concerns regarding software, AI, and non-ferrous metals appeared to dissipate as A-shares approached the strongest Spring Festival effect.
All sectors showed strength, with communications equipment, internet, cultural media, and semiconductors leading sharp gains, frequently witnessing waves of limit-up stocks.
Nvidia surged 8% last week, and Jensen Huang emphasized that AI development is still in its early stages, stating that AI infrastructure construction "has seven to eight years to go." He noted that what we see now is only the beginning of a long construction cycle, with overall computing power demand being "astonishingly high" and chip product demand far exceeding expectations.
Computing hardware stocks, such as CPO, continued their strong performance. Tianfu Communication surged nearly 20%, hitting a new historical high. Stocks like Tiantong Co., Zhili Fang, Taichen Guang, and Jiepute either rose over 10% or reached the daily limit up.
Huang’s remark that "chip product demand far exceeds expectations," combined with the enhanced Spring Festival effect in A-shares and Lansus Technology’s over 50% surge upon listing in Hong Kong, spurred a collective breakout in semiconductors. Companies like Xinyuan shares and Guoxin Technology rose over 10%.
ByteDance’s AI video generation model, Seedance2.0, went viral across domestic and international internet platforms, even being dubbed the strongest of its kind. Seedance2.0 can create cinematic-quality videos from text or images. It employs a dual-branch diffusion transformer architecture, simultaneously generating video and audio. By writing a detailed prompt or uploading an image, users can produce multi-shot sequence videos with native audio within 60 seconds.
As a result, cultural media concepts collectively rose. Chinese Online and Rongxin Culture hit the 20% daily limit up, while Gravity Media, Zhangyue Technology, and Huanrui Century also reached limit-up.
Additionally, space solar stocks saw a surge. Tesla plans to expand its solar cell manufacturing business, aiming to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100 gigawatts within the next three years.
Finally, a brief note on whether to hold stocks or cash during the holiday: A-shares have long exhibited a "Spring Festival effect." Data show that the probability of market gains after the holiday is significantly higher than before. In the five trading days following the Spring Festival, the probability of gains reaches 70%, with the largest post-holiday increase in 2024 at 4.85%.
According to Dongwu Securities, the week before the holiday is the optimal window for index positioning, as a rebound inflection point often occurs around five days prior. A review of Spring Festival trends since 2006 indicates that after previous consolidation, indices typically begin a trend rebound about five trading days before the holiday. In terms of sustainability, the rally generally continues until around T+6 days after the holiday, during which indices show a clear upward trend, with the slope gradually flattening afterward.
From a style perspective, a notable reversal between large-cap and small-cap styles occurs around the Spring Festival. Before the holiday, large-cap styles outperform small-caps, and growth generally beats value. After the holiday, small and micro-caps take the lead over large-caps. Both win rate and average returns highlight this reversal effect.
Moreover, institutions unanimously recommend holding stocks during the holiday. GF Securities stated that over the next one to two months, A-shares are likely to experience a favorable rally. Historically, February and the period around the Spring Festival represent the strongest phase of the spring rally calendar effect, with high market win rates and small-cap style dominance.
Xingye Strategy noted that as previous adjustments have released some risks, the peak impact of recent global narrative shifts on market sentiment may be gradually passing. Increased event catalysts and the "Spring Festival effect" are expected to create a favorable environment for market recovery, making holding stocks during the holiday advantageous in terms of both probability and payoff. Investors can gradually shift from defensive strategies and focus on positioning for the Spring Festival rally.
China Galaxy Securities suggested that before the holiday, hot themes may rotate periodically. Sectors with low volatility and high dividends, such as red-chip stocks, banking, and consumer goods, may continue to attract funds, with the market likely maintaining range-bound fluctuations. A balanced allocation is recommended. After the holiday, as policy windows open and risk appetite recovers, market focus may return to growth sectors with industrial catalysts and earnings certainty, such as AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy. The pace is expected to be more moderate, supporting a steadier bull market.
Citic Securities advised maintaining a foundation in "resources + traditional manufacturing," selectively buying non-bank financial stocks, and increasing allocations to the consumer and property chains. For the consumer chain, focus on duty-free, aviation, hotels, scenic spots, and freshly made tea beverages; for the property chain, consider quality developers, building materials, and REITs.
Dongwu Securities highlighted three allocation directions: first, oversold tech sectors, including domestic chips, semiconductor equipment, memory chips, computing power communications, and cloud computing; second, high-growth areas like energy storage/lithium battery chains, wind power, and cyclical price increase segments; third, themes related to the 15th Five-Year Plan, such as commercial aerospace and 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, brain-computer interfaces, and other emerging and future industries.
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