Gold-related stocks experienced a significant surge on Thursday, bucking the broader market trend. Shares of Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Ltd (HKG: 1818) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (SHA: 600988) both hit their daily limit-up, with other gold producers like Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (SHA: 600547), Beijing Xiaocheng Technology Stock Co., Ltd (SHE: 300139), Sichuan Rongda Gold Co., Ltd (SHE: 001337), Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd (SHA: 600489), and Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd (SHA: 601899) also posting gains.
This movement followed a sharp rally in the spot price of gold on Thursday evening, which climbed to around $4,130 per ounce, marking an intraday increase of approximately 2.45%. The catalyst was data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showing June non-farm payrolls came in below market expectations.
Goldman Sachs Maintains Bullish Stance
Goldman Sachs continues to hold a positive outlook on gold. While the investment bank recently adjusted its year-end 2026 price target down to $4,900 per ounce from a previous $5,400, this still implies a potential upside of roughly 20% from current levels. Goldman Sachs highlighted that ongoing reserve diversification by central banks in emerging markets remains a core pillar of its bullish thesis.
Diverging Views on Pricing
In contrast, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that gold may have already priced in overly aggressive interest rate hike expectations. According to CICC's latest research, gold prices near $4,000 per ounce appear to factor in a more hawkish monetary tightening path than what is currently implied by interest rate futures markets. CICC's macro team argues that pressures on employment and consumption, coupled with increased financing demand from the AI economy, may constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to adopt a substantially more hawkish stance. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, CICC posits that a potential recalibration of expectations around these three narrative challenges could offer a recovery opportunity for gold investment demand and market prices.
Mid-Year Outlook from World Gold Council
The World Gold Council released its mid-year outlook, noting that gold's performance will be shaped by a confluence of uncertainties, including geopolitical developments, the interest rate environment, and investor sentiment. The report suggests that if geopolitical risks intensify beyond expectations or if the global economic climate deteriorates, gold could regain its upward momentum.
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