Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On July 8th, a fundamental analysis of gold: During early European trading on Wednesday, spot gold faced downward pressure, trading near $4,120 per ounce. Renewed geopolitical tensions have triggered fresh selling pressure on the precious metal. The rekindling of US-Iran conflict has sparked concerns over energy inflation, weighing on gold prices; however, weak US non-farm payroll data for June (an increase of 57,000 jobs) has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, providing underlying support for gold. Geopolitical tensions, transmitted via oil prices, are reinforcing Fed rate hike expectations, while a stronger US dollar is suppressing gold's performance. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, and the Hong Kong gold clearing system has achieved "physical connectivity" with Shanghai. Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes due Wednesday, suggesting gold prices may experience short-term volatility, while medium to long-term prospects remain supported by Chinese demand. Investors are closely monitoring the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes later on Wednesday for further policy clues.
Gold Technical Analysis: The gold market exhibited a classic pattern of rallying and then falling sharply yesterday, with the intraday high touching $4,180, establishing a strong resistance level at that stage. After the upward momentum from bulls exhausted, prices continued to weaken. Although a minor corrective rebound occurred during the European and US sessions, the bounce was feeble and failed to break through the intraday decline's pivot point. Sellers concentrated their efforts again late in the session, with prices accelerating downward after breaking below the key $4,135 support level, reaching an intraday low of $4,092. The daily price fluctuation approached $90. The daily chart ultimately closed with a solid bearish candlestick at $4,105. The combination of a long upper shadow and a solid bearish candle now clearly indicates heavy selling pressure above, suggesting the short-term bullish rebound phase has temporarily concluded, and short-term bearish sentiment is intensifying.
On the daily chart, yesterday's solid bearish candle completely erased the gains from the previous two days' rebound. Short-term moving averages have turned downward, forming resistance, with $4,180 transforming completely from support into a strong resistance level. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows indicates the short-term trend has officially shifted into a weak corrective phase. The primary defensive support below is the overnight low of $4,092. A decisive break below this level would open the door for a decline towards the $4,070-$4,050 range. For bulls to regain control, prices must reclaim and stabilize above $4,150. On the 4-hour chart, consecutive declines have driven the Bollinger Bands to open downward, with the MACD's bearish green histogram continuing to expand. Any rebounds are merely technical corrections, lacking a foundation for a genuine reversal. Each minor bounce has been met with selling pressure, forming a typical bearish continuation pattern. Therefore, the primary short-term trading strategy should be to sell on rallies encountering resistance. On the hourly chart, a slight sideways consolidation occurred near the overnight lows, with oversold indicators showing a minor need for correction, suggesting a small intraday rebound. However, the rebound's upside is limited. The short-term pivot point is locked at $4,140. As long as the rebound fails to break above this level, the bearish structure remains intact. If the price stabilizes above $4,150, the market may switch to a wide range of $4,090-$4,180. After breaking below $4,140, the gold price declined rapidly, and this level has now transformed into short-term resistance. If the rebound cannot effectively reclaim the $4,140 area, the subsequent trend is still biased towards testing $4,090 or even lower levels. In summary, the suggested strategy for gold trading today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $4,100-$4,150 zone, while key short-term support below is focused around the $4,000-$3,950 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis: During early European trading on Wednesday (July 8th, Beijing time), the US military announced it had begun a series of strikes against Iran, while the US reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil. This has revived geopolitical risk premiums, pushing oil prices up over 5%. US crude oil is currently trading near $72.45 per barrel. Oil prices surged over 5% on Tuesday, with US crude hitting a one-week high of $72.36 per barrel, after US military strikes against Iran heightened concerns that a fragile ceasefire agreement might collapse. The US Central Command stated on Tuesday that the airstrikes on Iran were a retaliatory action for Iranian attacks on three commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, further elevating geopolitical risk premiums. Additionally, the US reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian oil has significantly deepened market worries about escalating Middle East tensions and potential crude supply disruptions.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: From the daily chart structure, US crude oil is currently experiencing a clear technical rebound following a significant oversold condition. Prices found buying support after a rapid decline but have not yet formed a definitive trend reversal signal. Observing the overall structure, oil prices remain within the previous correction range, with the short-term rebound primarily repairing earlier losses. Current market momentum has improved somewhat, with the MACD showing signs of convergence at low levels. However, the moving average system remains weak, indicating that bullish forces are recovering, but a trend reversal requires further confirmation. Key resistance above is focused around the $75 area. If prices effectively break through and stabilize above this level, it could open further room for a rebound. Key support below is around $68. A breach of this zone could lead to a retest of previous lows.
From the 4-hour chart perspective, the short-term rebound trend in crude oil is relatively clear, with prices gradually approaching the short-term resistance area after consecutive gains. The moving average structure shows short-term bulls hold a certain advantage, but rapid gains have created profit-taking pressure. If oil prices can break through the resistance near $75, they may continue higher in the short term. If the rebound is rejected, a technical pullback could occur, re-testing support near $70. The RSI indicator is currently in a recovery phase, indicating improved buying sentiment, but it has not yet entered a clearly overbought zone. Therefore, short-term focus remains on the effectiveness of any breakout. In summary, the suggested strategy for crude oil trading today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the $77.5-$79.5 zone, while key short-term support below is focused around the $73.0-$71.0 zone.
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