SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering carries a valuation where a significant portion, up to $1 trillion, is attributed to a collection of highly ambitious and forward-looking innovation projects. For investors to justify the steep price tag set by Elon Musk, they must place their bets on these long-term goals becoming reality.
This IPO's total valuation of $1.78 trillion marks a new historical record. According to individuals involved in the listing process and pre-IPO investor materials and research reports, this figure is heavily based on a series of projections: that SpaceX will achieve a Mars landing using reusable rockets, construct data centers in orbit, and play a significant role in artificial intelligence research and development.
Investors also believe SpaceX can solidify its existing advantages: establishing Starlink as a mainstream global communications network while leveraging its reusable rocket technology to pioneer entirely new markets beyond Earth.
The public offering is scheduled to commence this Friday. Less than a year ago, the company was valued at just $400 billion, indicating a dramatic surge. Some existing shareholders have raised concerns about this exceptionally high valuation. The company remains unprofitable, and at this valuation, its price-to-sales ratio reaches 92 times last year's revenue, far exceeding that of other large technology firms.
A venture capitalist holding billions of dollars worth of SpaceX shares stated, "Everyone understands that valuing a company like this inherently involves considering its future potential. Even excluding the potential orbital data center business, I believe the company's valuation might be around $1 trillion."
Analysts at Morningstar indicated that if SpaceX can realize its various grand long-term ambitions, the targeted valuation could be justified; however, based on the company's current performance, its intrinsic value is closer to $780 billion.
Morningstar equity analyst Nicholas Owens added that the SpaceX listing has garnered support from nearly all major global investment banks. Intense market enthusiasm for investments related to AI infrastructure, coupled with the company's early securing of a listing slot on the Nasdaq, has further driven up the valuation.
Nevertheless, many perspectives are more optimistic. They point to SpaceX's substantial lead in rocket manufacturing, Musk's proven track record of technological achievement, and the vast, untapped market opportunities within the artificial intelligence sector.
Some bullish investors, particularly Silicon Valley backers who have profited from collaborations across Musk's various enterprises, have committed tens of billions of dollars in capital, awaiting the outcome.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX's AI-related revenue could surge a hundredfold by 2030, reaching $322 billion. Morgan Stanley projects the company's revenue could exceed $3.4 trillion by 2040. Both of these investment banks are acting as underwriters for this IPO.
In essence, SpaceX comprises three interconnected business segments: rocket development and launch services, the Starlink satellite internet service, and the development of AI models along with the supporting computing infrastructure.
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