The discussion continues regarding TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (002129.SZ) and its plan to invest 1.258 billion yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Yidao New Energy Technology. Particular attention is drawn to Yidao New Energy, a company that initially intended to pursue an independent IPO with Guojin Securities (600109.SH) acting as the sponsor and lead underwriter. The stark contrast in the company's performance before its IPO application and after its failure to list is noteworthy and raises industry concerns. Whether this discrepancy stems from normal industry cycles or involves human factors remains an open question for consideration.
The current issue is whether Yidao New Energy, which is now deeply loss-making and insolvent, can find a path to recovery after securing substantial financial support from TCL Zhonghuan. While it is uncertain if this will lead to sustainable growth, the acquisition may at least provide a temporary respite. Conversely, what benefits will TCL Zhonghuan gain from acquiring a project that failed its IPO?
Of particular interest is the stance of Guojin Securities. The firm served as the sponsor for Yidao New Energy's IPO application and was also the first institution to publish a research report on TCL Zhonghuan following the acquisition announcement. While it is reasonable to assume that there are internal controls separating Guojin Securities' investment banking and research departments to prevent conflicts of interest, the involvement of the same brokerage in both stages of the deal is notable and worth documenting.
TCL Zhonghuan first announced the acquisition plan on January 16 this year. According to Wind data, Guojin Securities issued a research report on March 25, authored by Yao Yao and Zhang Jiawen, titled "Accelerating Integrated Layout, Gradual Emergence of Technological Patent Advantages." The report maintained an "Overweight" rating on TCL Zhonghuan. In it, the analysts commented that the company possesses technical expertise, patent portfolios, and R&D capabilities in areas such as BC, TOPCon, and multi-wafer technologies. They suggested that collaboration with Yidao New Energy’s battery module production capacity could enhance integration capabilities and accelerate the conversion of patented technologies to build comprehensive barriers.
However, the same analysts projected that TCL Zhonghuan’s revenue for 2026 and 2027 would be 34.019 billion yuan and 44.505 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders estimated at -2.275 billion yuan and 2.663 billion yuan. This contrasts sharply with a previous report issued by the same analysts in August 2025, titled "Narrowing Losses in Modules, 'Anti-Involution' Expected to Drive Profit Recovery." At that time, they forecasted revenue of 41.246 billion yuan and 46.267 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, with net profits of 1.467 billion yuan and 3.068 billion yuan, respectively.
Comparing the two reports issued just over six months apart, it appears that despite TCL Zhonghuan reporting a loss of nearly 10 billion yuan in 2025 and the anticipated benefits of acquiring Yidao New Energy, the analysts have significantly lowered their performance forecasts. Notably, the 2026 projection has shifted from an expected profit of over 1 billion yuan to a continued loss of more than 2 billion yuan, highlighting a considerable contrast in outlook.
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