According to a Bloomberg survey, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates twice this year, driven by inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran.
The survey, conducted from May 4 to 7, indicates that economists anticipate the central bank will implement 25-basis-point hikes in both June and September. This projection aligns more closely with market expectations of at least two rate adjustments this year. A prior survey had forecast only a single increase in the deposit rate, which currently stands at 2%.
Concurrently, the inflation rate for this year is projected to reach 2.9%, slightly above the 2.8% forecast in the previous survey. Analysts expect inflation to decline to 2.1% by 2027 and to meet the ECB's 2% target in 2028.
ECB officials have so far refrained from raising rates as they assess the economic damage caused by the Middle East conflict. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated last week that monetary policy must tighten if the energy shock broadens. Outgoing Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open will be a key factor for the June meeting, adding that the current level of uncertainty is exceptionally high.
Only a slim majority of respondents predict a rate hike in September, with the survey suggesting a potential rate cut by March of next year. This outlook is partly due to a deteriorating economic forecast.
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