Investment bank CMSC has released a research note stating that the State Council's executive meeting on July 31 approved four new nuclear power projects, including the first phase of the Zhuanghe project in Liaoning, totaling eight reactor units with a combined capacity of approximately 10.48 GW. This maintains a high level of annual approval volume.
The bank believes that top-level design, now clearly defined by law and planning, advocates for the active, safe, and orderly development of nuclear power. China is expected to enter a peak commissioning period from 2026 to 2030, offering significant upside potential for nuclear power operators. Against the backdrop of the large-scale application of independently developed third-generation technology, the entire industry chain is poised for a high-prosperity cycle, with long-term investment value seen in nuclear power operators.
Key takeaways from CMSC's report
Top-down design promotes active, safe, and orderly nuclear development
China resumed approvals for new nuclear projects in 2019, and from 2022 to 2025, it has approved no fewer than 10 units annually for four consecutive years. The latest approval of 8 units sustains this high approval rate. On the policy front, the Atomic Energy Law, which took effect in January 2026, serves as a foundational and comprehensive legal framework, explicitly stating the nation's commitment to actively, safely, and orderly developing nuclear power. It encourages the use of advanced reactors and covers the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from fuel production to spent fuel treatment, radioactive waste management, decommissioning, and comprehensive utilization. Furthermore, both the 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System and the 15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peak Action Plan set a target of having approximately 110 GW of nuclear power capacity in operation by 2030.
As of the end of June 2026, China had 62 commercial nuclear power units in operation, with a total capacity of 66.14 GW. This implies a potential capacity addition of around 44 GW over the next four years to meet the 2030 target, suggesting that the nuclear power sector is poised for a "double peak" in both construction and commissioning.
Peak commissioning period from 2026 to 2030 presents significant capacity growth for operators
China National Nuclear Power (CNNP): A major peak in commissioning is expected in 2027. As of the end of June, the company held a controlling interest in 27 operational nuclear units with a capacity of 26.212 GW. It has 18 units under construction or approved for construction, representing a capacity of 20.675 GW. Among these, Unit 7 at Tianwan and the Hainan small modular reactor (SMR) are scheduled for commissioning in 2026, adding a combined capacity of 1.39 GW. From 2027 to 2030, the company is expected to commission 4, 2, 3, and 1 unit(s) respectively, adding 5.04 GW, 2.565 GW, 3.715 GW, and 1.215 GW annually. This translates to year-on-year installed capacity growth of 18%, 8%, 11%, and 3%. If all units are commissioned as planned, the company's controlled nuclear capacity in operation will reach 40.138 GW by 2030, an increase of 13.926 GW or 53.1% from current levels. The year 2027 will mark the first major commissioning peak, driven by the concentrated start-up of Units 3 and 4 at Sanmen, Unit 8 at Tianwan, and Unit 3 at Xudapu.
CGN Power Co., Ltd.: A commissioning peak is anticipated in 2030. As of the end of June, the company's managed fleet consisted of 30 operational nuclear units with a total capacity of 34.248 GW. It has 18 units under construction or approved for construction, with a total capacity of 21.812 GW. Unit 2 at Huizhou is expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2026, adding 1.202 GW. From 2027 to 2030, the company is expected to commission 2, 1, 1, and 5 unit(s) respectively, adding 2.41 GW, 1.20 GW, 1.21 GW, and 6.12 GW annually. This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 7%, 3%, 3%, and 15%. If all units are commissioned as planned, the company's managed nuclear capacity in operation will reach 46.392 GW by 2030, a 35.5% increase from current levels. The year 2030 will see concentrated commissioning of Units 1 and 2 at Lufeng, Unit 3 at Huizhou, Unit 6 at Ningde, and Unit 3 at Cangnan.
Sustained high approval volumes signal a high-prosperity cycle for the industry
China's independently developed third-generation nuclear power technology has moved from demonstration projects to large-scale application. The "Hualong One" (HPR1000) design has entered a phase of multi-site batch construction, while the "Guohe One" (CAP1400) is transitioning from a demonstration project to standardized and mass production. The recent approval of 8 units brings the possibility of a second batch of approvals within the year, potentially maintaining a normalized approval pace of 10 or more units annually.
CMSC highlighted three key features of this approval round. First, the Second Phase of the Jinqimen project and the Third Phase of the Taipingling project will adopt the "Hualong One Technical Integration Solution Version 2.0," incorporating advanced technologies in intelligent control and modular construction, leading to comprehensive improvements in safety, advanced technology, and economic efficiency. Second, the First Phase of the Laiyang project will utilize the large-power, passive pressurized water reactor "Guohe One" technology, marking the first batch construction project for this design since the demonstration project in Rongcheng, Shandong. Third, the Zhuanghe nuclear power project received its first-ever approval. Its first phase will use the already mass-produced "Hualong One" technology, which is expected to further expand the long-term growth prospects of CNNP.
Risk factors
These include risks related to the safe and stable operation of nuclear units, the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, and the risk of declining electricity prices.
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