The lithography giant has released a significant signal. Shares of ASML Holding NV, the global leader in lithography systems, experienced a sharp intraday decline during after-hours trading, falling over 4% at one point, before steadily recovering to trade in positive territory. This movement was driven by the company's second-quarter performance guidance falling short of market expectations. However, in its latest earnings report, ASML raised its full-year sales guidance for 2026.
Analysts noted that as a barometer for global artificial intelligence (AI) chip demand, ASML's performance outlook directly influences market expectations for AI demand. Based on the company's updated full-year guidance, global demand for AI chips remains robust. The CEO of ASML stated that chip demand currently exceeds supply, with customers accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026.
On April 15, ASML's stock price saw significant volatility in US after-hours trading, plummeting over 4% before paring losses and turning positive; it was up 0.22% at the time of writing.
In its newly disclosed financial report, ASML projected second-quarter 2026 net sales between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, with a midpoint of approximately €8.7 billion, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of €9.07 billion. The expected gross margin range of 51% to 52% was also slightly lower than the actual gross margin achieved in the first quarter.
ASML's reported first-quarter net sales reached €8.77 billion, surpassing market expectations of €8.69 billion. Net profit was €2.76 billion, also exceeding the anticipated €2.56 billion. The gross margin was 53%, better than the expected 52.2%, compared to 54% in the same period last year.
The report indicated that ASML shipped 79 lithography systems in the first quarter, down from 102 units in the fourth quarter of 2025, but roughly in line with the average for the first three quarters of 2025. The company expects the number of critical patterning layers for advanced nodes to continue increasing, which is a core driver for the volume and pricing of system sales.
Regarding full-year guidance, ASML now anticipates 2026 net sales of €36 billion to €40 billion, raised from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion. The full-year gross margin forecast is maintained between 51% and 53%.
ASML stated in its earnings declaration that the growth prospects for the semiconductor industry continue to solidify, primarily driven by ongoing AI infrastructure investments. Supported by long-term agreements with their downstream customers, clients are accelerating their capacity expansion deployments.
ASML confirmed that order intake remains very strong and that it is working closely with customers to fully support their needs through the delivery of new equipment and performance upgrades for existing systems.
ASML is the world's only manufacturer capable of producing advanced lithography machines. Its equipment is essential for creating cutting-edge semiconductor chips by precisely printing transistor patterns onto silicon wafers. The data center chips used by NVIDIA for AI model training and inference are produced using ASML's technology.
ASML Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet stated in the earnings release, "Chip demand is currently exceeding supply. Consequently, supported by long-term agreements, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond. Over the past few months, customers have increased their short-term and mid-term demand expectations for our products."
He further added that ASML's order intake continues to be robust.
**Driven by the AI Infrastructure Wave**
Tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Inc., and Amazon, along with AI startups such as OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, plan to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure. This trend is propagating up the supply chain, directly leading to increased capital expenditure by chip foundries and memory chip manufacturers.
According to institutional forecasts, the combined capital expenditure of the four major players—Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—could exceed $500 billion in 2026 alone. Wall Street firms including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup predict that, driven by surging demand for AI inference computing power, global AI infrastructure investment could surpass $3 to $4 trillion by 2030. This historic wave of AI infrastructure investment is still in its early stages.
In the market, shares of NVIDIA, a global leader in AI, have shown sustained strength recently, recording a ten-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of nearly 19%, marking its longest rally since November 14, 2023.
Analysts point out that the uncertainty that had clouded AI-related trading is dissipating, with investor confidence regrouping. Investors generally maintain a positive outlook on the medium-term prospects for semiconductors, believing that the rise of agent AI and embodied AI will continue to drive profit growth for chip manufacturers.
A recent research report from Omdia indicates that global semiconductor industry revenue is expected to surge over 30% year-on-year in 2026, surpassing the historic milestone of $1 trillion for the first time. The core driver of this growth is the explosive increase in demand for AI training and inference computing power.
Ben Bajarin, a chip analyst at Creative Strategies, stated, "We genuinely lack sufficient computing power currently, which validates NVIDIA's core thesis: computing power translates directly into monetization capability."
Gil Luria, Managing Director at D.A. Davidson, also commented that the market is becoming "increasingly optimistic" about AI's development trajectory. As related investments continue into next year, capital is flowing towards semiconductor companies expected to benefit from ongoing data center construction.
Andrew Rocco of Zacks Investment Research noted that from a medium-term perspective, NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are all positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of AI infrastructure.
He added that the emergence of agent AI and embodied AI will further propel profit growth for chip manufacturers, as these applications will rely on massive amounts of computing power.
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