On October 20, the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released key data from its livelihood survey for the first three quarters of 2025. The data shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while the producer price index (PPI) declined by 2.8%. Per capita consumer expenditure in Sichuan reached 18,799 RMB, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.4%, with real growth of 5.8% after factoring in prices. What trends were observed in pricing across the province during this period, and what characteristics were noted in consumer spending? A relevant official from the Sichuan Survey Team provided insights.
Looking at the CPI, while services increased in price, goods saw a decline. The CPI drop of 0.4% aligns with national trends, attributed to slower domestic consumption recovery, intense price competition in several sectors, and falling pork prices along with lower fluctuations in international oil prices. Analyzing the categories, five out of eight types of goods and services saw price increases: healthcare prices rose by 0.6%, daily necessities and services by 0.7%, clothing by 0.8%, education, culture, and entertainment by 1.5%, and other goods and services by 4.4%. In contrast, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol dropped by 1.0%, residence by 0.4%, and transportation and communication by 3.2%. Liu Min, head of the CPI survey section, noted that although there is a broader scope of price increases, the significant weight of the declining categories in food, residence, and transportation led to a slight overall decrease in the CPI. Currently, Sichuan's CPI illustrates a structural decline with services rising while goods are falling.
For the first three quarters, consumption of services steadily grew among urban and rural residents, contributing to a 0.3% year-on-year increase in service prices. Conversely, weak overall food prices hindered upward momentum in consumer goods prices, which fell by 0.8% year-on-year. Despite the low CPI levels in Sichuan throughout this year, several expansionary domestic demand policies from central to local governments are beginning to show positive effects on price trends.
Core CPI is strengthening. For the first three quarters, the core CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with a 0.6% increase recorded in September, the highest point in nearly eight months. Additionally, there are signs of recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which rose by 0.2% year-on-year in September, marking a positive turn for the first time this year and reaching a 16-month high. When excluding energy, the year-on-year increase in industrial consumer goods prices was 1.2%, the highest in almost 39 months. The decline in car prices is also narrowing. Over the first three quarters, the prices of fuel cars and new energy cars fell by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively, with smaller declines of 3.2% and 2.7% in September, indicating a reduction from their respective lows earlier in the year.
Regarding PPI, overall decreases were influenced by factors including U.S.-China tariff policies, fluctuations in international commodity prices, and decreased internal competition. The prices of steel, coal, chemicals, cement, oil, and automobiles dropped, while non-ferrous metal prices increased, resulting in a PPI year-on-year decline of 2.8%—a 0.7 percentage point increase in the pace of decline compared to 2024. The industrial producer input price index (IPI) also decreased by 3.7%, with a decline of 1.0 percentage point compared to 2024.
Despite this, thanks to the rapid development of high-tech industries, enhanced consumption, and effective equipment upgrade policies, the PPI in Sichuan is showing positive changes even amid a downward trend. For instance, the price of electronic device manufacturing increased by 2.0% year-on-year, mobile phone prices rose by 2.0%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices increased by 3.3%. The release of consumer potential is boosting demand in several sectors of the manufacturing and equipment industries, with moderate price increases noted in food manufacturing (up 0.4%), textile and clothing (up 0.8%), leather and footwear (up 0.8%), and other manufacturing (up 12.1%).
As consumer-driven policies take effect, all eight major categories of consumption registered growth. "With the implementation of consumer stimulation measures—including trade-in allowances—the potential for consumer spending has been released," noted Shi Wenge, head of the household income and expenditure investigation section. In the first three quarters, per capita service spending reached 8,608 RMB, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, outpacing the acceleration in overall consumer expenditure by 0.7 percentage points and 1.4 percentage points compared to goods expenditure. The share of service consumption in total household spending now comprises 45.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous year and indicating a further enhancement in the quality of household consumption.
Overall, all eight categories of consumption reported growth. Thanks to various consumer stimulation policies, spending on daily necessities and services, transportation and communications, education, culture, entertainment, and other goods has risen significantly. In particular, the trade-in policy for consumer goods led to year-on-year increases of 10.4% in transportation and communications and 9.4% in daily necessities and services. Meanwhile, the vibrant cultural and tourism markets spurred a quicker rise in related consumer spending, leading to respective increases of 9.1% and 12.3% in education, culture, and entertainment, and other goods and services per capita.
Notably, rural consumption is outpacing urban consumption. For the first three quarters, urban residents recorded a per capita consumption expenditure of 23,690 RMB, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, with a real increase of 5.0% after price adjustments. In contrast, rural residents showed a per capita consumption expenditure of 13,902 RMB, rising 5.6% year-on-year, with a real growth of 6.2%. Notably, rural residents’ nominal and real growth rates exceeded those of urban residents by 0.9 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, indicating stronger consumption potential in rural areas.
On the income side, the first three quarters saw per capita disposable income in the province at 27,046 RMB, representing a nominal growth of 5.3% and a real growth of 5.7% after adjusting for prices. Wage income has played a pivotal role, with residents averaging 13,979 RMB in wage income, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase. Wage income's contribution to disposable income, accounting for 51.7%, and its growth contribution rate of 61.9% stand out as the highest among the four primary income categories. "This year, the province has effectively implemented various employment services and maintained robust policies to stabilize employment, alleviating the financial strains on significant groups such as migrant workers and former impoverished populations, resulting in steady income growth for urban and rural residents," Shi Wenge stated.
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