The US Central Command announced that, starting from 10:00 AM Eastern Time on the 13th (22:00 Beijing time), a blockade has been imposed on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports. The declaration stated that this blockade applies to all vessels from various countries accessing Iranian ports and coastal areas, covering all Iranian ports located in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The US Central Command clarified that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports will not be affected. According to US officials, over 15 American naval vessels have been deployed to support this blockade operation.
In response, Iran's Armed Forces Central Command spokesperson issued a strong rebuttal to Trump's threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, stating that the security of ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman "should either belong to everyone or to no one." Recent reports indicate that Iran has already imposed maritime transit restrictions on ports and waters along the coasts of the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.
Just three days prior, Trump had claimed that the Strait of Hormuz would "open soon." However, with the US military's blockade now in effect, America appears to be reverting to a "republic of pirates," reminiscent of 18th-century Britain.
Why has Trump once again engaged in tactical retreat? Can the blockade achieve its goal of crippling Iran's economy, and what impact will it have on the already severely disrupted global supply chain?
According to US officials, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was a proposal put forward by the US Central Command. The key aspect of this plan is to avoid deploying warships near the vulnerable Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, naval vessels are positioned in the outer Arabian Gulf (i.e., the Persian Gulf) and the Gulf of Oman to intercept commercial ships on both sides of the strait, preventing them from entering or leaving Iranian ports. If any commercial vessel attempts to risk transit to or from Iranian ports, US Marines and special operations forces will board and inspect it. Failure to comply with inspections could result in the vessel's destruction.
Following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, Trump promptly activated this plan. The reason is that after bombing over 13,000 targets in Iran, the US has no other effective means to compel Iran's submission. A reverse blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become the final option.
The blockade may also relate to US strategic and economic interests. On one hand, it aims to establish the precedent that the US has the right to control this critical global waterway. If the international community fails to制止 this blatant violation of international law, the US could apply similar actions to other key international passages, such as the Panama Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
On the other hand, blockading the Strait of Hormuz will force some oil tankers to reroute to the Gulf of Mexico to purchase oil and gas from the US. On the 12th, Trump praised an image on social media showing a long line of ships heading toward the US. In another post, he reiterated that numerous empty oil tankers were en route to the US to load "the best and 'sweetest' oil in the world."
Market analysis firms have tracked that 70 supertankers are currently heading toward ports on the US Gulf Coast. In contrast, only an average of 27 supertankers per month were loaded with US crude oil in 2025.
Can Trump achieve his goals of crippling Iran's economy, demonstrating the US's arbitrary control over critical international waterways, and profiting from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?
Based on the current situation, Trump may not get his way. Under normal circumstances, Iran primarily relies on the Kharg Island port in the Persian Gulf for oil exports, with the Chabahar and Jask ports in the Gulf of Oman serving as lower-capacity alternatives. However, since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, facilities at these ports have been largely incapacitated due to bombing. Therefore, the US military's additional blockade line outside the Strait of Hormuz is essentially meaningless.
A substantial shadow fleet can still maintain a certain level of Iranian oil exports. Data shows that since 2023, at least hundreds of "gray fleet" tankers have helped sanctioned Iran and Russia transport oil abroad. If the US military wants to completely strangle Iran's economy, it would need to target this shadow fleet, but the associated costs would be significantly higher.
To counter the shadow fleet's tactics of disabling AIS (Automatic Identification System) and using false ship names and satellite coordinates, the current 15 US warships, monitoring tools, and open-source intelligence are far from sufficient. Even with adequate resources, sustained naval operations would be challenging for the US military.
As for the "sweet oil" that Trump boasts about, it cannot serve as a new footnote for his "winning" narrative. The reason is that US shale oil and gas companies are uncertain about the duration of the Iran conflict and the extent to which Iranian oil exports will be restricted. Consequently, they remain cautious about expanding production capacity. This means that the more oil the US sells, the faster its inventories deplete.
The depletion of inventories translates to rising prices at US gas stations. On the 13th, the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.13 per gallon, an increase of $1.15 since the conflict began. If more supertankers head to the US to buy oil, domestic US prices will rise further, contradicting Trump's original intention of suppressing oil prices.
The US military's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is further damaging the global supply chain. Some real-world scenarios illustrate the extent of this disruption. The price of jet fuel in Europe has soared to three times its pre-conflict level. Europe has warned that it could face a systemic shortage of aviation fuel within three weeks.
In Japan, oil shortages are already impacting daily life and hospitals. Citizens are stockpiling trash bags, while medical institution leaders are calling for emergency reserves of surgical gloves, dialysis syringes, and other medical supplies.
Airlines from China, South Korea, and Vietnam have reduced some flights. The black-market price for liquefied natural gas in India has surged fourfold, forcing some restaurants to switch to firewood.
East Asia, South Asia, and the Gulf region are the areas most severely affected by the Iran conflict. These regions are central to global industrial manufacturing and raw materials. If shortages in oil, aluminum, helium, and fertilizer supplies persist, the global economy could contract.
The US military's blockade of Iranian ports on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz was originally intended to initiate a new round of brinkmanship with Iran. However, at present, aside from demonstrating Trump's强硬 stance and the US's privilege to violate international law by controlling key global waterways, other objectives are unlikely to be achieved.
Rather than engaging in such bluffing, it would be more prudent to return to the negotiating table and reconsider the terms. This represents the most cost-controllable approach to博弈.
Comments