According to a research report released by CITIC Securities, domestic route bookings are heating up, with ticket prices and peak periods showing a "double peak" pattern, indicating an early release of demand for the 2026 civil aviation Spring Festival travel rush. As of January 11th, data from Tongcheng Travel shows domestic flight bookings increased by 8% compared to the same period in 2025, with the booking curve continuing to rise after the New Year holiday. International route searches have surged significantly, but destinations and ticket prices present a stark contrast, with notable regional divergence. Domestic airlines are experiencing overall growth, yet individual airline performances vary significantly. Major airports with over ten million passengers are leading the trend, but regional performance is differentiated; passenger flight movements during the Spring Festival travel period are expected to surpass one million sorties, with eighty percent of airports achieving year-on-year growth. The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows: A sector overview, based on the performance of various transportation sub-sectors relative to the CSI 300, shows the overall transportation sector declined during the week (January 12th - January 16th). Specifically, the airline sector fell by 3.50%, and the airport sector dropped by 4.09%. A前瞻 for the 2026 civil aviation Spring Festival travel rush, synthesizing statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration and the Tongcheng Travel Spring Festival Travel Report among other authoritative sources, indicates domestic route bookings are warming up, with ticket prices and travel times exhibiting a "double peak," suggesting an early release of domestic market heat for the 2026 Spring Festival travel period. As of January 11th, Tongcheng Travel data indicates domestic air ticket bookings rose 8% year-over-year compared to 2025, with the booking curve maintaining an upward trajectory post-New Year holiday. International route search volume has skyrocketed, yet destinations and fares are a tale of two extremes, showing significant regional variation; fares for Japan-South Korea, Australia, Middle East-Africa, and the Americas have decreased noticeably compared to last year, while Southeast Asia fares have increased compared to the same period in 2025. Domestic airlines are growing overall, but their performances differ markedly, with carriers like China Express Airlines, West Air, and Tibet Airlines leading in capacity growth. Major airports are spearheading the trend, yet regional performance is split; passenger flight movements during the travel rush are projected to break through one million sorties, with eighty percent of airports seeing year-on-year growth. JD Airlines is accelerating the expansion of its self-owned fleet, adding new "airlift capacity" with Boeing and Airbus empowering its full-scenario logistics. The Boeing 737 narrow-body aircraft (with 22.7 tons of payload) will increase frequency on domestic routes like the Yangtze River Delta to Northwest China, leveraging its industry-leading utilization rate of 6.10 hours to extend "next-day delivery" coverage from core cities to third- and fourth-tier cities and specialty production areas. The Airbus A330 wide-body aircraft (with 61 tons of payload) will break through intercontinental capacity bottlenecks. This fleet expansion makes JD Logistics' "trunk line-warehousing-last mile" closed loop more resilient: the Nantong base capitalizes on spillover effects from the Shanghai hub, coordinating with nodes like Wuhu and Shenzhen to deeply integrate air transport with overseas warehouses and delivery networks. Risk analysis includes the risk of significant depreciation of the Renminbi exchange rate; the risk that the pace of international route liberalization falls short of expectations; and the risk of a substantial increase in fuel costs.
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