Following Iran's strike on a Cyprus-flagged container ship on Saturday, the United States and Iran have engaged in multiple rounds of reciprocal attacks, leading to a sharp decline in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler reveals that only 14 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, marking the lowest single-day volume in a month. Among these, only three tankers carrying crude oil, chemicals, and other bulk commodities departed the Persian Gulf, all of which were either operating on grey routes or subject to sanctions. Prior to the conflict's escalation in late February, the strait saw over 130 vessel transits daily.
The US military announced it conducted a series of strikes overnight against multiple Iranian military targets. The operation involved fighter jets, naval vessels, aerial drones, and, for the first time, maritime drones, with the aim of degrading Iran's capability to attack civilian merchant ships.
Due to the threat of sea mines, the main shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Vessels are now forced to choose between two alternative routes: a southern passage off Oman, which is escorted by the US Navy, or a northern passage through Iranian waters.
Jacob Larsen, Chief Security Officer at BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping association, stated that the memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran on June 17 has significant flaws. He argued the agreement undermines the effectiveness of international conventions governing maritime shipping, which explicitly grant vessels the right of innocent passage through international waterways. He also noted that the agreement has not resolved the core disputes between the two nations.
Larsen stated, "Iran retains the capability to use drones and missiles to attack merchant ships throughout the strait and surrounding waters. Recent events clearly demonstrate that Iran is willing to employ these means at any time."
Larsen assessed that as long as Iran's deterrent and strike capabilities remain intact, shipping traffic through the strait is likely to stay low.
He added, "It is difficult to predict how long it will take to reduce the threat of Iranian ship attacks to a manageable level. This depends on multiple factors, such as the intensity and scale of US military actions to physically destroy Iran's attack assets, and the actual impact of new economic sanctions on Iran."
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