In January 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. During an address at the forum the previous month, the head of the EU's executive body repeatedly stressed the need for the bloc to achieve "strategic autonomy."
These remarks came at a pivotal moment for a region that traditionally favors cautious diplomacy over confrontation with the White House, coinciding with threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to invade or forcibly purchase Greenland, a sovereign Danish territory, and the imposition of tariffs on several European nations opposing his plans.
While Trump's specific threats may have subsided, Europe's resolve to "reduce its dependence on the United States in trade, energy, and technology" has solidified. However, analysts indicate to CNN that severing these ties would be exceptionally difficult and come at a high cost.
Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, stated, "What you're trying to unpick are social, historical, institutional, economic, and financial ties that have been deepening for centuries."
Despite this, Europe cannot afford complacency. Washington's volatile, winner-take-all approach towards allies might persist beyond Trump's presidency, and Europe's reliance on the U.S. could become a critical vulnerability. Shearing added, "I think there is a fundamental distrust now in Europe, or a concern about what comes after Trump."
For now, however, the dominant position of the United States in the European economy makes a complete decoupling both unrealistic and potentially devastating for Europe. Here are the reasons:
Trade Deepening trade links with other nations is a key pathway for Europe to lessen its reliance on the U.S. This year, after decades of negotiations, the European Union has signed trade agreements with India and the four nations of the South American Mercosur bloc.
Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING, noted that while these agreements appear to be a step towards decoupling from Washington, "neither Mercosur nor India will be able to replace the U.S. in European trade over the next decade."
According to data from the European Council, the EU and the U.S. share the world's largest bilateral trade and investment relationship. In 2024, trade in goods and services between the two reached 1.68 trillion euros (approximately $2 trillion), accounting for nearly 30% of global trade.
The European Council also highlighted that the U.S. is the largest export market for EU goods, including automobiles and pharmaceutical products. Germany, the EU's largest economy and a major auto exporter, similarly views the U.S. as its primary trading partner.
Brzeski pointed out that Europe's dependence on the U.S. is far greater than America's dependence on Europe. He added, "Europe has always been export-oriented and is not self-sufficient in resources; the U.S. economy, by contrast, is relatively closed and autonomous."
Technology Europe's lack of homegrown tech giants comparable to those flourishing in the U.S. results in a high dependence on American firms for digital services.
Capital Economics' Shearing explained, "Europe's internet is essentially a system built by the U.S. In this arena, Europe has no viable competitor."
The EU's most valuable tech company—Dutch chipmaker ASML Holding NV—has a market capitalization only about one-third that of Tesla, the lowest-valued member of the U.S. so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, whose recent performance has dominated U.S. stock markets.
Last week, French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu stated that government officials would stop using American video conferencing tools like Zoom in favor of French-developed software. In a letter to ministers shared on social media platform X, Lecornu wrote that this move was partly intended to "reduce dependence on non-European entities."
ING's Brzeski stated that Europe would require massive investment to catch up with U.S. providers of digital services, cloud infrastructure, and data centers. He remarked bluntly, "[Europe] needs to build its own version of the 'Magnificent Seven'."
Energy Europe is still working to overcome its long-term dependence on Russian oil and gas—a strategic weakness exposed after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
To fill the void left by Russian energy supplies, the EU significantly increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, thereby reducing its vulnerability to Moscow's weaponization of energy. Before the war, Russia was the EU's largest gas supplier, meeting 40% of its gas demand.
However, Trump's habitual use of tariffs to pressure allies and wield trade as a weapon has altered Europe's risk assessment. The President has used energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with the EU, forcing Brussels last summer to commit to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products.
Data from Wood Mackenzie shows that last year, U.S. LNG imports accounted for nearly a quarter of the EU's gas demand, a significant increase from 6% in 2021.
Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie, told CNN, "This is clearly different from Europe's past dependence on Russia... but it is still a significant level of dependence."
Di Odoardo added that as domestic gas production declines in Norway, currently the EU's largest gas supplier, the share of U.S. LNG in Europe's energy mix is expected to rise further in the coming years.
Nevertheless, effectively weaponizing U.S. energy would require the involvement of American private companies. These firms have long-term supply contracts with European buyers and are bound by legal and financial obligations to fulfill the terms.
Unlike piped gas, however, LNG from one supplier can be easily swapped with LNG from another. Di Odoardo said, "Diversifying supply sources instead of relying on a single supplier is the prudent choice... This is what any rational government should do."
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