China Galaxy Securities has released a research report indicating that fixed asset investment is expected to face pressure in 2025 before resuming growth in 2026. Infrastructure investment has rebounded rapidly, with recommendations focusing on transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, new infrastructure, urban renewal, high-dividend stocks, overseas expansion, and regional development themes. The commencement of energy infrastructure projects, such as hydropower stations, is expected to stabilize and reverse the decline in investment, while promoting high-quality urban renewal. Additionally, the report recommends transportation infrastructure for stable growth, high-dividend stocks, overseas expansion, and mergers and acquisitions. It also suggests paying attention to growth-oriented themes such as the low-altitude economy, robotics, new infrastructure projects, as well as sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like coal chemical and nuclear power projects. Key views from China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
Fixed asset investment growth has bottomed out and started to recover. From January to February, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. However, private fixed asset investment declined by 2.6% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.39% in February. By industry, investment in the primary industry amounted to 109.3 billion yuan, up 17.4% year-on-year; investment in the secondary industry reached 1.7434 trillion yuan, rising by 5.4%; while investment in the tertiary industry totaled 3.4194 trillion yuan, down 0.4%. Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1%. Regionally, investment in eastern China increased by 1.8% year-on-year, central China by 1.9%, western China declined by 0.5%, and northeastern China dropped by 11.4%.
Infrastructure investment growth has rebounded sharply. The statistical scope of infrastructure investment has been redefined to include the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. From January to February, infrastructure investment grew by 11.4% year-on-year. Within this, investment in transportation, storage, and postal services increased by 9.1% year-on-year. Sub-sector performance varied: road transport investment fell by 0.6% year-on-year, air transport investment surged by 31.1%, pipeline transport investment jumped by 145.2%, and storage investment rose by 11.4%. Investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew by 13.10% year-on-year, with gas production and supply investment up 20.0%. Investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facility management increased by 8.3% cumulatively year-on-year, accelerating by 16.7 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year.
Real estate investment remains under pressure, with narrowing sales declines but challenges in new construction areas. From January to February 2026, national real estate development investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, though the decline narrowed by 6.1 percentage points compared to January–December 2025. Residential investment totaled 728.2 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year. The area of newly built commercial housing sold declined by 13.5% year-on-year, with the drop widening by 4.8 percentage points. The floor area under construction decreased by 11.7% year-on-year. New construction starts fell by 23.1% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2.7 percentage points. Residential new construction starts amounted to 36.95 million square meters, down 23.3% year-on-year. The floor area of completed projects dropped by 27.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 9.8 percentage points. Current high-frequency data show that secondary housing listings have stabilized at low levels, but listing prices continue to face pressure. Growth in new home inventory has continued to decline, while the contraction in mortgage loan growth has significantly widened, indicating that household confidence in purchasing homes needs restoration.
Transportation infrastructure still has substantial room for development, and energy infrastructure exhibits high activity. The outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes adhering to moderate but not excessive超前, strengthening overall infrastructure planning, and improving the modern comprehensive transportation system. It aims to enhance the main framework of the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, advance the high-quality construction of strategic backbone channels such as coastal, border, and riverine corridors, as well as routes into Xinjiang and Tibet, and the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, and largely complete the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network and the national expressway network. The plan also proposes building a strong energy country, promoting multiple energy sources including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, and implementing a decade-long doubling action for non-fossil energy. Additionally, it calls for high-quality urban renewal, conducting city health assessments, and accelerating the development of complete communities. High-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative is also emphasized.
Risk warnings include potential declines in fixed asset investment, decreases in new contract signings, slower-than-expected recovery of accounts receivable, and increased uncertainties in policy and external environments.
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