The latest wave of innovative drugs is being driven by China's participation in new technologies, including ADC, bispecific/multispecific antibodies, second-generation IO, and GLP-1. China leads in R&D innovation in these areas, with numerous products now yielding data. As new technologies and targets continue to emerge, along with increasing BD transactions, the value of early-stage innovative pipelines will be further recognized and priced.
New technology development is shaping the future of the pharmaceutical industry. With continuous breakthroughs across various fields, medical innovation is expected to reach new heights.
**Key Insights from Founder Securities:**
**Overseas Expansion as a Trend, Major Deals on the Rise** Over the past decade, global pharmaceutical transactions have grown steadily, with total deal value surging from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion, and upfront payments increasing from $8.3 billion to $13.9 billion. China-related transactions have grown even more rapidly, with total deal value soaring from $3.1 billion to $57.1 billion. In 2024, China accounted for approximately 30% of global transaction volume and value.
Technological innovation continues to drive industry growth and cross-border BD deals. China's leadership in ADC, bispecific antibodies, and next-gen IO positions it at the forefront of this wave.
**Analysis of MNC BD Demand Based on Top 100 Global Drug Sales & Patent Expirations** - **Oncology:** IO+ADC remains foundational in cancer treatment, with second-gen IO and ADC still in high demand. PD-1 bispecifics have already secured multiple major deals. Pembrolizumab, with $29.48 billion in sales in 2024, continues strong growth. As PD-1 patents expire, second-gen IO (PD-1 bispecific/trispecific) is expected to gradually replace PD-1 monoclonal antibodies. Key players: 3SBio, Innovent Biologics, Akeso, RemeGen, Huahai Pharmaceutical, DualityBio, Lepu Biopharma, Kelun-Biotech, CSPC Pharmaceutical.
- **Immunology & Respiratory:** Blockbuster products face challenges as patents expire (e.g., adalimumab, secukinumab). The new wave focuses on Th2/Th17 pathways, with Dupilumab ($14.1B in 2024 sales) leading the field. Bispecifics, TCEs, and in vivo CAR-T remain hot areas. Key players: Sino Biopharm, 3SBio, Qyuns Therapeutics, Mabwell, Everest Medicines.
- **Cardiovascular & Metabolic (CVM):** The market remains vast, with GLP-1(R) drugs revolutionizing the space ($50B+ in 2024 sales). Oral small molecules and muscle-building/weight-loss drugs are emerging trends. Key players: Hengrui Pharma, CSPC Pharmaceutical, Innovent Biologics, Livzon Pharma, Ascletis Pharma, Hua Medicine, Laekna Therapeutics, Frontier Biotech, Jingxin Pharmaceutical.
- **CNS:** Continued interest in Alzheimer’s and depression treatments. Key players: NHWA, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, Luye Pharma, China Resources Pharmaceutical, Gibel Pharma, Zai Lab.
**New Technologies Shaping the Future** Next-gen ADC, TCE therapies, universal/in vivo CAR-T, gene therapy, and oligonucleotide drugs are poised to redefine disease treatment. Continued breakthroughs could usher in a new peak in medical innovation.
**Risks:** Intensified competition, slower-than-expected clinical trials, and market expansion challenges.
Comments