JPMorgan has released a research report noting that following the Lunar New Year holiday, the performance of Chinese H-share insurance companies has trailed the broader market. Market focus appears to be on: (1) short-term earnings risks, as major insurers have not yet issued positive profit alerts; (2) a lack of data points, due to the absence of monthly premium income disclosures; and (3) the macroeconomic trends after the holiday period. The firm expects the sector to regain momentum as the earnings announcement period approaches. Five key catalysts include: (1) enhanced discussion on total shareholder returns; (2) optimistic management guidance on life insurance sales prospects for the 2026 fiscal year; (3) robust solvency capital positions in the fourth quarter of 2025; (4) declining funding costs; and (5) increasing confidence in the recovery of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) for life insurance reserves. JPMorgan prefers PING AN (02318) due to its life insurance sales recovery and attractive valuation, as well as CHINA LIFE (02628), which offers discussions on strengthening shareholder returns alongside similarly strong life insurance sales growth prospects. JPMorgan has assigned an "Overweight" rating to the H-shares of PING AN and CHINA LIFE, with target prices of HK$100 and HK$40, respectively. The firm notes that insurers are not required to issue profit alerts unless annual net profit changes by more than 50%. JPMorgan forecasts net profit growth for CHINA LIFE, PING AN, and CPIC (02601) at 47%, 19%, and 10% year-on-year, respectively, for the 2025 fiscal year. Insurers are exercising greater caution regarding voluntary profit alerts, focusing more on sustainable dividend per share growth from core earnings and increased profit volatility under new accounting standards. The firm does not view the lack of positive profit alerts as an earnings risk for the current quarter. Notably, market consensus for 2026 fiscal year net profit already indicates a 9% year-on-year decline, suggesting limited risk for further downward revisions at this stage.
Comments