SpaceX closed at 139.65 USD, with a -2.57 % change.
The session was defined by a standout $6.24 million short call on the January 21, 2028 $185.00 strike, accompanied by a net-credit calendar-style multi-leg combination that collected $87,100.00 in premium. These trades drove a clearly bearish bulk-order tape, with $7.56 million in bearish large-trade activity against $3.87 million bullish, leaving a net bearish imbalance of $3.69 million and signaling a market focused on capping upside rather than chasing a rally.
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Options Indicators
SPCX’s implied volatility stands at 67.33%, and with an IV percentile of 79.15%, current option volatility is in the elevated zone, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to the stock’s own recent history. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.67 suggests implied volatility is running below historical realized volatility, which somewhat tempers the rich-looking percentile reading, but overall the options market is still reflecting a relatively high volatility regime rather than a cheap one.
The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.62.
Large Trades
A bearish call sale worth $6.24 million was the standout large trade of the session, with 2,000 contracts sold on the January 21, 2028 $185.00 call. With the stock reference at $139.65, this strike sits out of the money, making it a classic premium-selling expression that leans bearish to neutral. The seller appears to be positioning for SPCX to remain below $185.00 into long-dated expiration, or at least for upside to be limited enough that time decay works in their favor, which reinforces a view of capped upside rather than aggressive bullish participation.
A net-credit calendar-style multi-leg CALL+PUT combination brought in $87,100.00, built through the purchase of the August 21, 2026 $140.00 put, the sale of the August 28, 2026 $145.00 call, the sale of the August 28, 2026 $127.00 put, the purchase of the August 21, 2026 $150.00 call, and the sale of the August 21, 2026 $155.00 call. This structure mixes short premium with hedged wings and a near-dated versus later-dated component, pointing to a tactical premium-collection setup rather than a simple outright directional bet. The long $140.00 put adds downside protection, while the short calls above spot and the short $127.00 put suggest the trader is willing to lean against large near-term moves and harvest decay within a defined-risk framework, leaving the overall stance mildly bearish to neutral given the call-heavy short exposure and the fact that the trade was initiated for a net credit.
Overall, bulk-order flow was bearish, with $7.56 million of bearish large-trade activity versus $3.87 million of bullish flow, for a net bearish imbalance of $3.69 million. The directional takeaway is clearly negative: the tape was dominated by upside call selling, led by the very large 2028 $185.00 call write, while the featured multi-leg structure also emphasized net premium collection with a cautious, hedged posture rather than outright upside conviction. Even though there was some supportive put selling and selective call buying elsewhere in the book, the heavier concentration of bearish premium-selling activity indicates market participants were more focused on capping upside and monetizing volatility than positioning for a strong rally.
Strategy Reference
For traders seeking a low assignment probability, selling the January 21, 2028 $185.00 call remains the dominant play, but those preferring defined risk can replicate the session’s tone with a bear call spread such as shorting the $150.00 call and buying the $155.00 call in the August 21, 2026 expiration, or use a put spread to monetize elevated IV without unlimited short-call exposure.
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