According to Woofun AI, United States cryptocurrency investment firm Bitwise released its "2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report on October 28, with its core conclusion pointing to a Bitcoin price of $1,599,766 by 2036.
This base-case forecast implies that Bitcoin will climb at a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% from a benchmark price of $83,557 on September 30. That growth rate is significantly higher than the 28.3% projected in the previous version, which Bitwise attributes to the expansion of the store-of-value market and the institutional investment market, as well as strengthened market confidence in the long-term trajectory.
The report asserts that over the decade leading up to 2036, Bitcoin is expected to become the highest-returning variety among various institutional investment assets. Notably, this forecast not only revises the previous target price of $1.3 million for 2035, but also, through a refined market penetration model, outlines a path for Bitcoin's rising share in institutional asset allocation. The underlying logic is a structural increase in the weighting of real assets in portfolios against the backdrop of swelling global debt.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Bitwise uses a total addressable market model for its calculations, assuming that the store-of-value market composed of gold and Bitcoin will expand from the current $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion, with Bitcoin taking a 25% share under the base-case scenario. In addition, the report provides detailed penetration forecasts for a total of seven markets, including institutional investor investment assets (1% share) and emerging market currencies (1% share).
Under the pessimistic scenario, Bitcoin's price in 2036 would be only $130,686, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%; under the optimistic scenario, the price could reach $3,667,911, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.0%. According to estimates by Boston Consulting Group, institutional investors' total assets amount to about $147 trillion. If 1% to 5% of that is allocated to Bitcoin, it would generate purchase demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. By comparison, Bitcoin's annual new issuance is only about $14 billion, creating a huge supply-demand gap.
In the United States, spot Bitcoin ETFs that have been listed for less than three years already manage $108 billion in assets. On the supply side, of the 21 million coin issuance cap, 20.1 million coins (95.7%) are already in circulation, with an annual supply growth rate of only 0.8%, expected to fall to 0.4% in 2028 and further to 0.2% in 2032, far below gold's 2% supply growth rate. Macro debt pressure is also a key driver: total U.S. federal debt stands at $40.2 trillion, debt interest payments are $1.36 trillion, and the fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2026 is $2.0 trillion, forcing the government to potentially respond by expanding money issuance, thereby increasing the allocation value of real assets such as Bitcoin.
Price cycle fluctuations and asset maturity indicators are also worth noting. After hitting an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin fell to $58,717 on June 30, 2026, a decline of 53.4%. Historically, Bitcoin's cyclical drawdowns have reached 86%, 84%, and 77%. If the June 30 low holds, this would be the smallest decline in history, seen as a sign of the asset's gradual maturation.
The report points out that the 10-year volatility rate is 27.8% and is expected to continue declining. In terms of correlation, Bitcoin's 10-year average correlation with U.S. stocks is 0.43, and its 90-day correlation with gold reached a record high of 0.58 on September 11. As a cross-reference, the report also cites the average long-term return assumptions of four institutions—JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard: U.S. stocks 6.7%, gold 5.5%, U.S. bonds 5.0%, and private equity 10.8%, showing a significant gap with Bitcoin's assumed 34.3% annualized return, highlighting its unique risk-return characteristics.
Long-term risk factors are mainly concentrated in technological challenges and regulatory uncertainty. The potential technological threats posed by quantum computers and artificial intelligence cannot be ignored, while changes in the regulatory environment have more immediate impact. The U.S. "Market Structure Act"—the "Clarity Act"—after passing the House of Representatives in July 2025, failed to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to end debate in a Senate procedural vote on September 15, 2026, with 50 votes in favor and 49 against, and the legislative process stalled there; disputes over ethics provisions and opposition from community banks were the main obstacles, and partisan divisions have introduced new risks to the future of the regulatory field. This legislative deadlock could lead to a policy vacuum or fragmented regulation, further affecting the pace of institutional investors' entry.
Despite these uncertainties, Bitwise still maintains that, as global debt continues to swell and the traditional financial system's demand for diversified asset allocation increases, Bitcoin's long-term value logic as a non-sovereign store-of-value tool remains solid. Over the next decade, whether Bitcoin can truly integrate into mainstream institutional investment portfolios will depend on the clarity of the regulatory framework and the security of technological infrastructure. This is another key turning point for the market after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and its outcome will profoundly affect the pricing system and liquidity structure of global digital assets.
Comments