UBS's latest research report reiterates a "Neutral" rating on Apple (AAPL) and maintains a $296 price target.
The firm tracked iPhone supply conditions across more than 30 global markets and found that the average wait time for the iPhone 18 Pro has shortened by about 4 days compared with the same period last year, while the Pro Max is roughly flat.
UBS believes that, against the backdrop of Apple raising prices across its entire product lineup this year, shorter delivery wait times may reflect weakening consumer demand, limiting room for further upward revisions to iPhone sales forecasts.
Based on the $344.67 share price cited in the report, UBS's price target is about 14.1% below the current level.
Global wait times shorten, Pro Max drops 5 days in a single week
Data tracked by UBS Evidence Lab shows that the average delivery wait time for the iPhone 18 Pro has shortened by about 4 days year-over-year, while the Pro Max is broadly in line with the same period last year.
Regional differences are fairly pronounced: wait times for the Pro in the U.S. market lengthened year-over-year, but this was offset by shorter wait times in Europe and Japan; wait times for the Pro Max in the U.S. also lengthened, but changes in other markets, especially China, offset that effect.
Looking at changes over the most recent week, Pro wait times shortened by about 1 day, while Pro Max wait times shortened by about 5 days.
By comparison, in the same period last year, Pro wait times outside the U.S. and Pro Max wait times in China were basically stable week-over-week.
UBS believes that, with supply relatively stable, persistently shortening delivery wait times are worth watching closely.
After across-the-board price hikes, demand price sensitivity becomes a key risk
Apple raised prices across its entire iPhone lineup this year, making demand sensitivity to price changes a new focal point.
UBS noted that if consumers' acceptance of higher prices falls short of expectations, it could weigh on demand for the new models.
Combined with recent wait-time changes, the firm believes there is currently insufficient basis for further raising iPhone sales forecasts.
Still, Wall Street remains divided on Apple's demand outlook.
Evercore ISI maintains an "Outperform" rating on Apple with a $380 price target; KeyBanc maintains an "Underweight" rating and a $250 price target, citing concerns about new-model demand.
Bernstein also maintains an "Outperform" rating but has expressed concerns about Apple's fourth-quarter gross margin and sales guidance.
Apple shares near 52-week high, valuation raises the bar for results
According to the report's data, Apple shares are around $344.67, close to the 52-week high of $348.15, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.31 times.
At the same time, the global smartphone market as a whole is under pressure.
IDC data shows that global smartphone shipments in the third quarter fell 22% year-over-year, mainly due to the AI industry driving up memory chip costs.
In this environment, the relative competitiveness of Apple's high-end products remains an important support, but the higher valuation means the market already has high expectations for sales, pricing and margin performance.
The main basis for UBS maintaining its Neutral rating this time is that current new-model delivery data has not yet shown sufficiently strong demand improvement to support further upward revisions to earnings forecasts.
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