On Monday, January 12, during the Asian trading session, the price of gold surged to around $4,600, setting a new all-time high. This rally is primarily driven by sustained inflows of safe-haven capital amid heightened global uncertainties. Concurrently, market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve within the year have also provided significant support for gold prices.
Geopolitical risks are a key catalyst behind this round of gold price appreciation. The U.S. President is reportedly weighing multiple potential military options against Iran, while recent deadly protest incidents within Iran have further intensified tensions. This elevated uncertainty has significantly boosted market risk aversion, substantially enhancing the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.
It is noteworthy that gold's ascent to a new record high is not driven by a single factor but is the result of a combination of geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Against a backdrop of persistently high global uncertainty and a Federal Reserve policy outlook leaning towards easing, gold's value as both a safe-haven and portfolio asset is unlikely to diminish significantly in the short term. However, as prices climb rapidly, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic data is also increasing, potentially leading to amplified price volatility in the future.
Regarding the outlook for gold's subsequent trend: Gold prices have once again reached a historic peak! Many investors are still waiting for a pullback, unaware that each dip represents an excellent opportunity to enter the market. In a bull market, corrections are as brief and precious as a holiday; they are essentially opportunities where major players offer profits to retail investors. Remember, in a bull market, every pullback is a buying opportunity. All you need to do is one thing: buy and hold. Time will ultimately reward those who adhere steadfastly to their strategy.
After breaking through $4,600, gold's next target is $4,800, or even $4,900. In a bull market, so-called resistance levels are often insignificant; each consolidation after a surge is merely preparation for the next leg higher. Never mistake a correction for a reversal. For medium to long-term investors, every dip is a good time to build positions. Maintain your core holdings and add on weakness, and you will benefit from the compound returns delivered by the bull market. Unrealistic predictions and blind chasing of rallies or panic selling are futile; calmly grasping the market's rhythm is the true key to success.
Gold has currently broken through the previous high of $4,550, reaching a new historical milestone near $4,600, thereby initiating a fresh upward cycle. Adhering to the trend, the principle of remaining bullish without attempting to predict the peak remains unchanged for this year. The years 2025-2026 are poised to be another strong period for gold. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical instability and strong expectations for Fed rate cuts, safe-haven demand for gold continues to heat up. Particularly from late 2025 into early 2026, central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, and gold ETF holdings are also rising, all of which support the view that gold prices have limited room for a significant decline in the short term. Therefore, we maintain our trading strategy of buying on dips.
During early trading today, gold experienced a sharp rally towards $4,600. For short-term trades, the approach remains to wait for a pullback and primarily look for buying opportunities. The area around $4,550 has now become a new support level; this level, representing a conversion from resistance (the prior high) to support following the breakout, serves as the optimal reference point for initiating long positions. The next target, as identified by Wen Chengkai, is the $4,700-$4,800 range! The medium to long-term outlook remains bullish.
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