The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued an updated report on the 3rd, elevating its forecast level for the accelerated formation of a strong El Niño phenomenon in the coming months. The organization warned that this event is highly likely to further push up global temperatures and significantly increase the risk of extreme weather and climate events in many regions.
WMO scientist Alvaro Silva pointed out that El Niño conditions are already present in the equatorial Pacific region. Major mainstream prediction models show high consistency, indicating this is set to develop into a strong El Niño event. Silva stressed that the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon is crucial, as its additional boosting effect on global temperatures typically leads to new record highs in the global average temperature. According to current cross-year meteorological evolution trends, the potential impacts of this El Niño episode on different global regions will persist at least until the end of this year and extend into 2027.
The WMO had previously predicted in early June the possible emergence of a moderate or strong El Niño. However, the latest observational data has significantly increased the forecast confidence level for the formation of a "strong El Niño." The agency also stated that if monitoring information from the later part of this summer indicates an intensification, it does not rule out the possibility of further raising the forecast level in the future.
Seasonal climate predictions indicate that this strong El Niño episode will exhibit typical and intense climate disruption characteristics. Influenced by it, precipitation patterns in Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of North and South America are expected to be drier than usual. During the monsoon season, parts of South Asia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia will also face the threat of drought and reduced rainfall.
Meteorological experts noted that as an extreme manifestation of climate change, Europe just experienced its most severe recorded abnormal heatwave from June 20th to 28th, leading to local power supply disruptions, infrastructure damage, and immense overload pressure on the healthcare system. The WMO reiterated that El Niño, a periodic phenomenon involving regular warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, typically lasts 9 to 12 months. Against the backdrop of current global warming, its combined effect with human-induced climate change will make the global situation for preventing and mitigating extreme weather disasters even more severe.
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