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Corn: Neutral Yesterday, the corn futures main contract surged to a high of 2,313 yuan/ton, closing at 2,393 yuan/ton. The domestic average corporate corn purchase price stood at 2,237 yuan/ton, marking a sequential increase of 0.49%. Bullish sentiment currently runs high at elevated levels; although price resistance is evident, there are no signs of a pullback within the week, suggesting that prices will continue to trade within a high range. In Ukraine, as of January 22, 2026, 59.067 million tons of grains (including corn) have been harvested, covering an area of 11.15 million hectares (96% of the planned area), with an average yield of 5.3 tons/hectare. Ample corn supply and potential short-term cost reductions could benefit downstream deep-processing industries and strengthen orders. View Summary: For the corn 03 main contract, watch for support near 2,250, with resistance maintained at 2,330.
Soybean Meal: Neutral Profit-taking by long positions and accelerated soybean harvesting in Brazil led to an overnight decline in CBOT soybeans. According to Conab data, as of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest reached 6.6%, with Mato Grosso state progressing at 19.7%, a weekly increase of approximately 13 percentage points. Forecasts indicate favorable rainfall across most of Brazil in the coming week, beneficial for crop growth; precipitation in Argentina's Córdoba province is expected to improve soil moisture, though Santa Fe and most of Buenos Aires provinces will see only scattered showers, warranting attention to potential drought development. Domestically, soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills are showing seasonal drawdown characteristics, reflecting previous active inventory building by downstream enterprises. Recent stabilization and strength in U.S. markets provide cost support for meal prices, while market concerns over potential temporary tightness in future soybean supply and uncertainties surrounding the pace of reserve releases have also enhanced price resilience to some extent. However, relatively attractive crushing margins for Brazilian far-month shipments may encourage commercial oil mills to actively purchase vessels. If subsequent pressure from South American arrivals materializes, the risk of meal price declines squeezing crushing profits remains. View Summary: Adopt a range-trading approach; the 05 contract is expected to trade within a range of 2,700-2,850 yuan/ton during the day.
Eggs: Neutral Spot prices in main production regions remained stable. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei was approximately 3.51 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. After a period of sustained strength, spot prices are showing signs of stagnation. The total number of chicks placed in 2025 decreased by about 42.2 million compared to 2024, but still remained at a relatively high level of approximately 1.015 billion. High placement levels may significantly slow the pace of industry capacity reduction, potentially prolonging the time needed for a sustained rise in the central spot price level. In the short term, Spring Festival restocking supports a temporary rebound, but caution is advised regarding post-holiday correction risks amid high volatility. For medium to long-term positioning, anchor the intermediate-term logic of declining inventories; once the capacity reduction trend is established, focus on opportunities to build positions in far-month contracts at low levels. Pay attention to structural differences around the Spring Festival; the deepened Contango structure before the holiday may be disproved, potentially reversing after the holiday. Trading Strategy: Basis trading in nearby months continues; the potential return of hedging pressure may significantly impact the premium of far-month contracts.
Live Hogs: Neutral Yesterday, the average price for live hogs in main production regions was approximately 12.93 yuan/kg. Profits for both self-sufficient breeding and purchased piglet fattening have approached breakeven levels, indicating a significant alleviation of industry losses. The return to positive breeding profits and rising piglet prices signal short-term market improvement. Guidance from newborn piglet data suggests that the overall tone of high supply is unlikely to change before Q2 2026. A slight sequential improvement in supply may arrive in Q3 2026. Supply pressure for live hogs is expected to persist in the first half of 2026, with a potential trend recovery likely waiting until the effects of capacity reduction become clearer in the second half. However, improved sentiment among breeders at the current juncture may hinder the path of capacity reduction, potentially capping the upside for spot prices. Trading Strategy: The pattern of weak supply and demand drivers is expected to continue in H1 2026; hedgers should focus on seizing contract opportunities.
Risk Disclaimer: This analysis was prepared by the analyst team of the Futures Company's Research & Development Department. The information herein is derived from publicly available sources. CITIC Securities Futures strives for accuracy and reliability but makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is undertaken at one's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situations, or needs. Clients should assess whether any opinions or suggestions in this analysis suit their particular circumstances.
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