After years of silence, Michael Burry, the famed investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crash (as depicted in "The Big Short"), has re-emerged with a flurry of public statements over the past seven weeks. The typically reclusive Burry, who previously posted cryptic warnings on X (formerly Twitter) before quickly deleting them and disappearing, has now shifted focus to Substack, where he shares personal investment insights and financial analyses.
**Bubble Watch** Breaking his silence in late October 2023, Burry has centered his warnings on what he calls a historic AI bubble. He argues that leading tech companies, despite slowing cloud growth, are overinvesting in NVIDIA (NVDA.US) chips and data centers. He criticizes these firms for artificially inflating short-term profits by extending depreciation periods, diluting shareholder value with excessive stock-based compensation, and engaging in mutual back-scratching contracts to sustain hype.
Comparing the AI frenzy to the dot-com and housing bubbles, Burry predicts a similarly disastrous outcome. He labels OpenAI as "the Netscape of our time" but warns it is hemorrhaging cash. He has disclosed short positions in NVIDIA and Palantir (PLTR.US), forecasting the AI bubble will burst within two years. His advice to investors who have profited from the AI boom: take profits now.
In a recent interview with author Michael Lewis—dubbed his "possibly final public appearance"—Burry stated, "Based on current conditions, I believe U.S. stocks are likely headed for a prolonged downturn."
**Bitcoin and Gold** Burry dismissed Bitcoin as "utterly absurd" at $100,000, calling it "devoid of intrinsic value" and "worse than tulip bulbs"—at least tulips were merely expensive, whereas Bitcoin facilitates crime. Bitcoin has since fallen below $90,000. In contrast, he revealed holding gold since 2005 and praised Alphabet (Google’s parent) as "the value investor’s favorite" among big tech stocks.
**Stocks, Banks, and the Fed** Burry lambasted the Federal Reserve, claiming it has "done more harm than good" since its inception over a century ago. He argued the U.S. Treasury could easily manage interest rates and money supply without the Fed. He also warned of fragility in the U.S. banking system, saying it could collapse "much faster than people think."
Defending his past calls on regional bank crises, pandemic inflation, and meme-stock collapses, Burry asserted his predictions have been "mostly spot-on." He shared details of his personal portfolio, which mirrors his former fund’s holdings, including Lululemon (LULU.US), Molina Healthcare (MOH.US), Shift4 Payments (FOUR.US), Fannie Mae (FNMA.US), and Freddie Mac (FMCC.US).
In his latest post, Burry revisited his January 2021 exit from GameStop (GME.US) just before its infamous short squeeze. He admitted, "I had no way of foreseeing the extreme volatility that followed," and teased an upcoming deep dive into GameStop’s investment merits and risks.
Burry also revealed a long-standing acquaintance with NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress and disclosed he first bought the chipmaker’s stock in 2017 or 2018. True to his Substack title, "Cassandra Unchained," Burry is speaking freely for the first time in years—and may just be getting started.
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