COMEX gold exhibited a weak and volatile trend overnight and continued its short-term downward momentum after today's opening, with buying pressure remaining subdued.
On the macroeconomic data front, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week rose to 225,000, exceeding the expected 215,000 and reaching a nearly three-month high, indicating a marginal cooling in the labor market. However, the number of continuing claims remains low, suggesting the overall job market has not deteriorated significantly. The current data is insufficient to provide a solid basis for a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Market attention remains focused on today's upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which will serve as a key reference for the Fed's June policy meeting and will significantly influence gold's short-term direction.
Regarding policy, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have clarified that current policy options are concentrated between maintaining patience and implementing further rate hikes, with inflation identified as the primary economic risk. This stance has further reinforced market expectations for a hawkish Fed posture. As long as inflationary pressures show no substantial easing, the window for interest rate cuts remains firmly closed.
On the geopolitical front, former President Trump's public statement expressing no intention to restart a full-scale war with Iran has provided a marginal stabilizing signal for market sentiment. However, the potential for U.S.-Iran conflict and issues related to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have not been completely resolved. The transmission path from oil price volatility to U.S. inflation expectations remains open, making it difficult to fundamentally shake the foundation for hawkish Fed expectations in the short term. This will continue to exert downward pressure on gold prices.
In summary, market volatility is expected to increase around the time of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, warranting a cautious approach. The primary strategy at present remains to seek buying opportunities on price dips.
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