Recent price fluctuations have made it difficult even for experienced traders to predict future market trends. The wholesale price of single-bottle Feitian Moutai has once again dropped to around 1560 yuan per bottle, following a brief rebound last week. According to multiple liquor merchants and scalpers, this decline is primarily due to adjustments in Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s strategy, as well as the traditional off-season for baijiu consumption after the Spring Festival, leading to reduced demand. Persistent volatility has also prompted distributors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with operations becoming more cautious.
Since the beginning of March, wholesale prices for Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. have shown significant fluctuations. Data from third-party pricing platforms indicate that on March 10, the wholesale price for a case of standard Moutai dropped from 1700 yuan per bottle at the start of the month to around 1560 yuan, while single-bottle prices fell to 1540 yuan. By March 14, the case price had recovered to 1620 yuan, but it has declined again over the past two days.
A liquor merchant in Jiangsu Province reported that the current local market price for single-bottle Moutai is mostly around 1560 yuan per bottle, with cases being relatively scarce and priced between 1600 and 1610 yuan. Recent price volatility is largely attributed to the post-holiday off-season, with market demand noticeably decreasing. Wang Wei, a liquor merchant in Tianjin, also noted that this year's post-holiday slowdown arrived as expected, with business being quieter than in previous years.
Price instability has led to widespread caution among merchants and scalpers. A long-time Moutai scalper mentioned that recent discussions among peers have frequently centered on new developments in Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s "i Moutai" business, which is seen as disrupting traditional operating models. Previously, Moutai prices were influenced by a market-controlling model where distributors and intermediaries could affect supply through hoarding, thereby manipulating prices. However, the current erratic fluctuations make it challenging for seasoned players to forecast market movements, leading to a greater emphasis on risk management and reluctance to purchase inventory easily.
In some regions, the buyback price for Moutai continues to decline, with single-bottle repurchase prices in many areas falling to 1500 yuan. This indicates that single bottles purchased through the "i Moutai" platform no longer carry a premium.
Recent feedback from distribution channels indicates that Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. has released detailed consignment policies for non-standard products such as premium and zodiac-themed Moutai. Distributors must pay a deposit to qualify and complete sales through the i Moutai platform at uniform prices, with Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. providing a 5% rebate as profit, effectively transforming distributors into service providers. Industry analysts interpret this move as an effort by Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. to strengthen its pricing power and reduce market speculation.
Independent baijiu commentator Xiao Zhuqing believes that channel partners now earn service fees unrelated to transaction prices, which to some extent severs the path for distributors and scalpers to manipulate Moutai prices.
It is noteworthy that there has long been a significant gap between Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s guided prices and terminal market prices, with the latter often influenced by channel control. As the latest adjustments deepen, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. has demonstrated effectiveness in curbing market speculation. However, some merchants express concern that while the new measures surrounding "i Moutai" have burst the channel bubble, the uncertainty brought by marketization, detached from the traditional channel's "buffer," remains a point of ongoing attention.
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