This week saw mixed performance across major stock indices, with combined net outflows from equity and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets totaling 120.84 billion yuan.
From a sector perspective, ETFs tracking software and non-ferrous metals were favored by capital inflows, while ETFs related to robotics and photovoltaics experienced selling pressure.
Notably, broad-based index ETFs encountered significant capital outflows this week; however, 117 sector-thematic ETFs still achieved net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan each.
Over 100 billion yuan exited the market via ETFs this week.
Total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 17.13 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market contributing 7.05 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 10.08 trillion yuan. At the latest close, the Shanghai Composite Index settled at 4101.91 points, declining 0.45% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08 points, posting a weekly gain of 1.14%.
Wind data indicates that combined net outflows from equity and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounted to 120.84 billion yuan for the week. Specifically, broad-based index ETFs saw net outflows of 212.6 billion yuan, whereas sector-thematic ETFs recorded net inflows of 69.3 billion yuan.
A detailed breakdown of major broad-based index fund subscriptions and redemptions shows the CSI 300 experienced net outflows of 103.4 billion yuan this week, with only the CSI 2000 seeing a slight net inflow.
Among specific ETFs, the ten largest broad-based index ETFs collectively recorded net outflows of 150.85 billion yuan, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF alone seeing outflows of 47.515 billion yuan.
Some securities firms suggest that current mild inflationary recovery and the gradual repair of endogenous economic momentum, against a backdrop of improving macroeconomic fundamentals, support a continuation of the structural slow-bull trend in the A-share market. Sentiment analysis indicates the year-end rally may persist, although short-term market volatility could intensify, advising investors to maintain cautious optimism.
ETFs tracking sectors like software and non-ferrous metals attracted significant capital inflows.
In the sector-thematic ETF space, 117 funds achieved net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan this week. The Software ETF, Non-ferrous Metals ETF, and Media ETF saw their units increase by 6.558 billion, 2.939 billion, and 4.799 billion respectively, translating to net inflows of 6.882 billion yuan, 6.366 billion yuan, and 6.271 billion yuan.
On the outflow side, 56 sector-thematic ETFs experienced net outflows surpassing 100 million yuan. The Robotics ETF, Photovoltaic ETF, and FinTech ETF saw their units decrease by 1.346 billion, 1.226 billion, and 1.308 billion respectively, corresponding to net outflows of 1.467 billion yuan, 1.271 billion yuan, and 1.242 billion yuan.
It is noteworthy that the Software ETF (159852) and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (512400) have consistently attracted capital recently, with their fund units reaching new all-time highs since listing.
One securities firm projects that by 2026, the commercial realization of AI applications will be a key driver of revenue growth for the software industry. Reflecting on the cloud computing era, when new technology revenue exceeded 10% of total revenue, company valuations experienced rapid expansion. Currently, AI application penetration in the software sector is in its early acceleration phase, with some companies beginning to disclose AI-related orders in 2025, marking the industry's entry into the initial stage of new technology adoption. By 2026, as foundational large language model capabilities improve, the commercialization of AI applications is expected to proceed more smoothly, potentially ushering in a phase of rapid market capitalization growth for the software industry, positioning the current period as an optimal window for strategic allocation.
Regarding non-ferrous metals, analysis suggests three primary factors could drive a super-cycle: first, a potential weakening trend for the US dollar during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting cycle, which typically boosts prices of dollar-denominated metals; second, structural supply-demand gaps, where industrial metals like copper face supply constraints due to declining ore grades at major mines, rising marginal costs, and reduced prior capital expenditure in mining, while demand is bolstered by infrastructure development in areas like artificial intelligence, new energy, and data centers; third, the implementation of domestic policies aimed at curbing excessive internal competition ("anti-involution"), which are expected to optimize overcapacity and promote a better supply-demand balance.
Conversely, the Photovoltaic ETF (515790) has faced sustained selling pressure, with its fund units falling to a near one-year low.
Institutional views suggest that valuations within the photovoltaic sector remain at historically low levels. Looking ahead, policies concerning measures to stabilize product selling prices amidst anti-involution efforts, mergers and acquisitions among companies, raising industry entry barriers, and enhancing product quality standards are anticipated to be rolled out successively. This could lead to an optimization of the competitive landscape and industrial chain ecology within the photovoltaic sector, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery.
Thirty-six ETFs recorded weekly turnover exceeding 10 billion yuan.
This week, 36 equity and cross-border ETFs saw turnover surpass 10 billion yuan.
Among them, the CSI 500 ETF achieved a weekly turnover exceeding 60 billion yuan, setting a new historical record.
Analysis suggests the Shanghai Composite Index has found technical support around the 4100-point level; if this support holds, the market retains potential for repeated new highs. Although the US dollar index has shown a rebound recently, the Renminbi exchange rate has remained stable, providing a relatively favorable overall exchange rate environment for A-shares.
Six ETFs are scheduled to list next week.
Fund heavy-position stocks are always a focus for investors, but disclosures from actively managed funds often lag. In contrast, the investment targets of ETFs are very clear. Tracking newly listed ETFs can often reveal recently popular individual stocks, and the incremental capital brought by these new ETFs is also noteworthy.
Currently, six ETFs have disclosed plans to list next week, tracking targets including chip design, Hong Kong Stock Connect healthcare, software, new energy, batteries, and electric power.
Additionally, eight ETFs have disclosed plans for issuance next week, tracking targets such as chip design, photovoltaics, construction machinery, Hong Kong Stock Connect healthcare, aquaculture, and non-ferrous metals.
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