On Friday, March 13th, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which comprehensively covers leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector including gold, rare earths, copper, and aluminum, experienced a pattern of rising and then falling in early trading. Its intraday increase reached 1.37% before settling at a gain of 0.26%. Data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows that this ETF has attracted a net inflow of 110 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating that capital is optimistic about the future performance of the nonferrous metals sector and is actively positioning itself.
Among the constituent stocks, Guocheng Mining, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium led the gains, each rising over 3%. Stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, and Tengyuan Cobalt advanced more than 2%. On the other hand, Xiamen Tungsten fell over 5%, while Steel Research Hi-NA, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Hunan Gold declined more than 2%, ranking among the top losers and weighing on the index performance.
Regarding market news, since the large-scale military actions began in the Middle East on February 28th local time, the region's annual supply chain for approximately 7 million metric tons of primary aluminum and its production raw materials is facing unprecedented disruption. Uncertainty now surrounds 9% of the global primary aluminum supply. This has rapidly fueled concerns about a global aluminum supply shortage, pushing prices to historical highs.
On March 12th, the three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched $3,546.50 per metric ton during the session, a significant increase of 2.5%, marking its highest level in nearly four years. Compared to pre-conflict levels, LME aluminum has seen a sustained upward surge, with a cumulative gain exceeding 10%. Industry insiders point out that even if production resumes after the conflict ends, the restart cycle would take at least six months. The overseas supply-demand balance has been disrupted, and the deficit is expected to widen further. Rising overseas aluminum prices are likely to drive a substantial increase in domestic prices, while export demand for domestic aluminum products is also anticipated to rise significantly.
Goldman Sachs noted that if the Middle East loses one full month of production, combined with rising energy costs in Europe, aluminum prices could be pushed towards $3,600 per metric ton. CITIC Securities also believes that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to sustained and substantial increases in oil, gas, and overseas electricity prices. As one of the most electricity-intensive metals, the aluminum industry is particularly sensitive to energy price fluctuations. J.P. Morgan emphasized that the market may be underestimating the risk of supply disruptions in the aluminum industry. The bank estimates that if substantial supply disruptions occur in the Middle East, aluminum prices could quickly climb to $4,000 per metric ton.
[The Nonferrous Metals Trend Has Arrived, An "Super Cycle" Appears Inevitable] The Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index that comprehensively covers industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It encompasses different phases of the economic cycle, including precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery). This broad coverage allows for better capture of the overall sector's beta performance. Furthermore, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for a one-stop allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
As of the end of February, the Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) had a net asset value of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan over the past month. Among the three ETF products tracking the same underlying index in the market, it ranks first in both size and liquidity.
Note: The previous on-market abbreviation for the Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) was Nonferrous Leaders ETF. ETF Fee Information: When investors subscribe for or redeem fund shares, the subscription/redemption agency may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-market trading fees are subject to the rates actually charged by the securities company. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee. Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee is 1,000 RMB per transaction for subscription amounts of 2 million RMB or more; 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB; and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. The Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) does not charge a subscription fee. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% is charged. Risk Disclosure: The Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is December 31, 2013, and it was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five full calendar years is as follows: 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%; 2025, +91.67%. The composition of the index's constituent stocks is adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its past performance does not indicate future returns. The mention of individual constituent stocks in this article is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any form, nor does it represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a Balanced (C3) or higher risk profile. Suitability matching opinions should be based on the sales institution. All information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions they make. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice of any kind for readers, and no responsibility is accepted for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. The past performance of a fund does not indicate its future returns. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest cautiously.
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