International oil prices have declined. New York crude oil closed at $81.25 per barrel last night, a drop of 2.43%, while Brent crude oil closed at $87.07 per barrel yesterday, down 2.15% during the day.
Domestic oil prices will undergo the first adjustment in August at 24:00 on August 14. Due to the continuous rise in international oil prices recently, the current crude oil change rate has reached -6.34%, predicting a reduction of 240 yuan per ton in oil prices. Based on this expected decline, the price of gasoline and diesel will drop again tonight by 0.18 yuan to 0.22 yuan per liter. (Note: The final adjustment result of oil prices is subject to the announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission.)
According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the main basis for domestic refined oil price adjustments is the change rate obtained by comparing the weighted average price of international crude oil over 10 working days with that of the previous cycle. If the change rate corresponds to an adjustment amount of less than 50 yuan per ton, the prices of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be included in the next adjustment for accumulation or offset.
During this pricing cycle (from 24:00 on July 31 to 24:00 on August 14), the geopolitical situation in the Middle East briefly eased and then became tense again. International crude oil prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the average crude oil price declining month-on-month. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has remained in negative territory, showing a trend of first widening and then narrowing.
Analyst Yu Yaxin from Zhuochuang Information believes that there are significant differences between the United States and Iran, and there are few actual oil tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the news side is highly uncertain, and the market is volatile. However, with only one working day left before the adjustment, it is difficult to change the negative situation of the domestic crude oil change rate. The domestic refined oil retail price limit will likely be lowered as scheduled at 24:00 today, with a decrease of about 0.15 yuan per liter, reducing consumers' fuel costs.
Analyst Liu Bingjuan from Longzhong Information also stated that as of August 12, the average reference crude oil price during the cycle was $82.14 per barrel, down 4.90% from the previous cycle. It is expected that when the adjustment window opens at 24:00 today, the theoretical reduction in the corresponding refined oil retail price limit will be around 210 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.15 yuan per liter. This round of reduction is a foregone conclusion, but the final adjustment range still needs to be confirmed by the official announcement.
So far this year, domestic oil prices have undergone 15 rounds of adjustments, which are "ten increases, four decreases, and one suspension." The prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,575 yuan and 1,515 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of last year. According to calculations by Longzhong Information, after this round of adjustment, the pattern of adjustments in 2026 will become "ten increases, five decreases, and one suspension."
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