On Thursday, February 5th, the A-share market experienced a consolidation with shrinking volume. The computing power sector, including optical modules, faced another setback, while the artificial intelligence segment on the ChiNext board continued its correction. A majority of component stocks declined, with Zhishang Technology and Taichenguang both falling over 10%, and Guangku Technology, Liante Technology, and Tianfu Communication dropping more than 5%. However, after three consecutive days of decline, the leading optical module stock, Zhongji Innolight, was the first to halt its slide and close higher, recording a turnover of 18 billion yuan, the highest on the A-share market for the day.
Regarding popular ETFs, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363), which holds significant positions in leading optical module companies, closed down 2.36% intraday, falling below its 20-day moving average. Its daily turnover shrank to 633 million yuan. Recent data shows continuous capital inflows, with a total increase of 530 million yuan over four days.
Analyzing comprehensive market information, the recent volatile performance in the computing power sector, including optical modules, may be primarily driven by sentiment fluctuations: 1. **Valuation Adjustment Post-Strong Earnings:** Following earnings forecasts for 2025 that significantly exceeded expectations for several optical module companies, some investors chose to take profits after the results were announced, leading to short-term pressure on stock prices. 2. **Shareholder Reduction Pressure:** After the Q3 reports last year, and as stock prices rose throughout the year, shareholders of multiple optical module companies initiated share reductions to cash out, intensifying short-term selling pressure. 3. **Spillover from Overseas AI Sentiment:** Anthropic's release of a new efficiency tool sparked investor concerns about the potential for AI technology to replace core business functions of software companies.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the fundamental outlook for the computing power sector, including optical modules, remains robust. The continuous development of the global AI industry chain and expanding capital expenditures are driving growth in computing power demand. As a clear industry trend, optical modules are expected to see both earnings and valuations rise simultaneously, supported by liquidity.
China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that the phenomenal popularity of AI Agents like Clawdbot, along with a significant increase in token usage, indicates strong AI computing power demand projected for 2026. Capital expenditure plans from North American Cloud Service Providers remain optimistic. Recent financial reports from Microsoft and Meta show continued high growth in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. The firm maintains a positive outlook on the AI computing power industry chain, particularly the optical module segment, which demonstrates high earnings visibility.
The fund manager for the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363), Cao Xuchen, previously pointed out that optical modules currently represent a "clear industry trend." In an environment of ample liquidity, both their earnings and valuation trajectories are upward, making valuation premiums likely, with the potential for these premiums to expand further. As one of the market's current concentrated investment directions, optical modules hold a leading position in the industry trend and have short-term (2-3 months) supportive catalysts, and are expected to maintain their leading performance.
As AI development shifts from computing infrastructure construction to application deployment, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) and its off-exchange counterparts (Class A: 023407, Class C: 023408), which provide one-click exposure to both "computing power + AI applications," stand to benefit more directly from the growth红利 (dividends) of AI technology commercialization. In terms of sector allocation, the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence index allocates approximately 60% to computing power (leading optical module companies + leading IDC providers) and about 40% to AI applications, making it not only a core "computing power" play but also a genuine representative of "AI applications."
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