Airline stocks have often been the biggest movers—one way or the other—following the big moments in the Iran war. But that’s not the case on Monday.
Shares of Delta Air Lines hit an all-time intraday high, rising more than 1% in early trading, while United Airlines jumped 4.3% and was on track for a record closing high—its first since Jan.6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Southwest was also up 1.5% after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim peace deal and agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
While they are likely to be among the biggest tangible beneficiaries from a resumption of shipping through the key oil route and lower fuel prices, the stocks weren’t the biggest risers in the S&P 500.
That title looks set to go to the usual suspects. Tech highfliers Micron, Super Micro Computer, Western Digital, Advanced Micro Devices were all outperforming airlines in early trading.
“The Middle East news saw investors scramble to readjust their portfolios. Out went oil, defence and telecom stocks, and in came higher risk and more economically sensitive parts of the market,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote.
“Investors lapped up mining companies, housebuilders, packaging providers, tech names, and banks,” he added.
However, the move for airlines stocks—and cruise operators—is still sizable and signifies the next leg up for the sector’s recovery. Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line were all up between 4% and 6%.
Travel demand has remained strong, enabling carriers to hike airfares to significantly offset the impact of surging fuel costs. The stocks have rallied in recent months as a result, with the U.S. Global JETS exchanged-traded fund up 24% since the start of April.
It will take some time for jet-fuel prices to fall substantially but if the interim U.S.-Iran agreement can become a permanent peace deal, the setup for airline stocks looks favorable.
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