Shares of JLMAG (HKEX: 06680) jumped more than 9% at one point during the trading session. By the time of writing, the stock was up 7.6%, trading at HK$18.83 with a turnover of approximately HK$97.33 million.
On the fundamental front, an analysis points to an improving landscape for the rare earth industry. On the supply side, with comprehensive regulatory upgrades for domestic rare earth supply in China, it is assumed that the country's rare earth production quota allocations will maintain a steady growth rate of around 5%. Incremental projects from overseas are also expected to come online gradually. Furthermore, stimulated by high prices, supply from scrap recycling is anticipated to achieve a relatively high growth rate.
Regarding demand, growth in demand from electric vehicle motors is projected to decelerate, while embodied robotics is expected to contribute to long-term incremental demand. Overall, it is forecast that domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide supply in China will reach 118,000, 126,000, and 135,000 tonnes for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively. Demand is projected to be 125,000, 138,000, and 154,000 tonnes for the same period.
This indicates that the domestic supply-demand balance for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to remain overall tight, with the supply-demand gap narrowing, which reduces marginal elasticity. Against the backdrop of sustained demand growth, the price center for praseodymium and neodymium is anticipated to maintain a high-level, range-bound trajectory.
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