A $3.2 Trillion Option Expiration Seen Worsening Post-CPI Rout

Bloomberg2022-09-16

Market makers seen selling equities to hedge their positionsDealer ‘gamma’ flipped to short post inflation data: SpotGammaAnother wrinkle in a chaotic stock market where everything from the frenetic ...

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Comments

MLFL
2022-09-18
MLFL
Hi
HelloKitty55
2022-09-17
HelloKitty55
Ok
BangkokBali
2022-09-17
BangkokBali
TRiple wynching is a WitchHer potion adds another 100% to market volatility Bet she will fly in on her broomstick on a stormy night
- HelloKitty55:
  ok
Jess261
2022-09-17
Jess261
Okay
buckethead
2022-09-17
buckethead
ok
haoren
2022-09-16
haoren
Oh

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After the S&P 500 fell below 4,000 -- an area that harbors one of the highest open interest to roll out -- selling intensified, according to Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC.“Once we broke through there, all hell broke loose,” Sosnick said on Bloomberg TV. “I have not been one of those to make too much hay about these expirations but lately they really have become significant.”It’s the latest example of a controversial narrative that suggests that stocks effectively become a derivative of its own derivative -- one that upends the traditional relationship between options and their underlying assets.The interplay between the equity and options markets can be complex. To illustrate the dynamics, Brent Kochuba, founder of analytic service SpotGamma, calculated thegamma, or the theoretical value of stock required for market makers to buy or sell in order to hedge the directional exposure resulting from all price fluctuations in options.At 8 a.m. Tuesday, dealer gamma was flat, according to SpotGamma’s estimate, meaning they didn’t need to do much hedging. After the data on August’s consumer price index hit the wire at 8:30 a.m., S&P 500 futures tumbled almost 3% in a matter of minutes. Instantly, dealer positioning flipped to a dynamic known as short gamma, meaning market makers had to trade with the prevailing trend -- in this case selling stocks when they fall.“Because these are short dated puts, their value changes much more rapidly,” said Kochuba. “Gamma is higher as you get closer to expiration. This leads to more active hedging, which expands volatility.”The dynamic was a reversal from the previous week when an equity rally into this upcoming options expiration led to a decay in the value of put positions. That in turned prompted dealers to purchase stocks, adding fuel to market gains.Source: Goldman SachsIt’s unclear if the event known as OpEx will fuel fresh fireworks on Friday this time round. About $3.2 trillion of options are set to expire, obliging holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. The tally includes more than $2 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $505 billion of derivatives across single stocks scheduled to run out, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Rocky Fishman.The good news is that there was little sense of panic during the S&P 500’s $1.5 trillion rout on Tuesday, according to Amy Wu Silverman, an equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Stock tradingvolumewas subdued, and the analyst didn’t see many new positions initiated in the derivatives market. That means, hedging activity from options dealers is likely to subside accordingly after Friday’s event.“It’s definitely safe to blame options for some of the exacerbation of moves,” she said. “But it’s not really like this move freaked people out and made them add 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