A recent survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum indicates that central banks maintain a strong appetite for gold, even as its price has experienced a recent pullback.
Approximately 61% of the central banks polled anticipate that the price of gold will stabilize within the range of $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce by June 2027.
The survey encompassed 74 central banks and 16 public pension or sovereign wealth funds, collectively managing over $10 trillion in assets.
The findings show that 82% of central banks will hold physical gold in 2026, a significant increase from 71% in 2025.
On a net basis, 30% of central banks plan to increase their gold allocations over the next one to two years.
Only 28% of respondents believe the current price is too high to be a barrier to further purchases, highlighting sustained demand.
Key Motivations for Gold Acquisition
The primary drivers for purchasing gold are shifting from financial considerations to strategic positioning.
Fifty-one percent of respondents cited hedging against geopolitical risks as a major reason for buying gold, an increase of 11 percentage points from 2024.
Simultaneously, the survey reveals a deepening trend of global de-dollarization.
For the first time, the number of central banks planning to reduce their US dollar reserves over the next decade exceeds those planning to increase them.
Central banks in emerging markets are reportedly more proactive in embracing this strategic shift.
Analyst Perspective on Reserve Strategy
A senior economist involved in the report noted that the traditional assumption that public investors can simply wait for a return to normal conditions is becoming increasingly unrealistic.
Amid persistent geopolitical conflicts and rising policy uncertainty in the United States, gold has firmly secured a central place in reserve management strategies.
Divergent Market Outlooks
Market expectations for the gold price are not uniform.
JPMorgan Chase forecasts that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.
In contrast, Deutsche Bank suggests the price could potentially fall to $3,800 if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
The World Bank also commented, noting that despite a roughly 15% decline from its February peak, continued demand for gold from central banks is expected to provide underlying support for its price.
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