Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Key Data Price Trends In the futures market, the main soybean contract A2607 closed at 4,784 yuan per ton this week, up 68 yuan week-on-week, an increase of 1.44%. In the spot market, the basis for edible soybeans in Bayan region was A07-24, down 148 from the previous week; in Baoqing region, the basis was A07-64, down 148; in Fujin region, the basis was A07-64, down 148; and in Shangzhi region, the basis was A07-24, down 148.
Soybean Supply and Demand According to Mysteel estimates, domestic soybean arrivals at oil mills across all samples in May 2026 are projected to be approximately 9.8865 million tons, with June and July arrivals each estimated at 11 million tons. Weather conditions: Precipitation was below average in Northeast China this week, with some producing areas experiencing light to severe soil moisture deficits, which is unfavorable for soybean sowing and seedling emergence. Rainfall in the northern winter wheat region is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and wheat grain filling. However, frequent rainy, overcast, and strong convective weather in Jiangnan, South China, and Southwest China is unfavorable for the growth of spring-sown crops and summer harvesting operations. Remaining grain situation: The off-season for downstream soybean product consumption continues, and the pace of soybean consumption in the market is slow. It is estimated that remaining soybean stocks in Heilongjiang are at 25%, in Anhui at 30%, in Henan at 34%, and in Shandong at 35%. On the demand side, terminal consumption in sales regions remains weak. Downstream processing enterprises and traders are conservative in their procurement, mainly purchasing as needed, with low restocking意愿. Overall trading is light. The continuous arrival of imported soybeans and rising oil mill inventories have created significant substitution pressure on domestic soybeans, leading to downward pressure on spot prices.
Market Analysis This week, the main soybean futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued its pattern of high-level震荡偏弱, with the price重心 slightly lower. The domestic soybean market maintained a differentiated trend, with prices declining in the Northeast, weakening in the关内region, and facing pressure in sales regions. High-quality grain sources in Northeast producing areas remain relatively tight, but现货报价have seen slight下调due to weaker期货prices and疲软demand. In the关内producing regions, the off-season for terminal consumption persists,采购节奏are slow, prices are generally weak, and sales are light. In sales regions,报价continue to be weak due to sluggish soybean product consumption and substitution pressure from high imported soybean inventories. Enterprises primarily focus on meeting刚性需求through随采and消化库存, with large-scale restocking yet to commence. Overall, domestic soybeans are currently supported by expectations of reduced new crop planting area and tight现货in producing areas, providing some支撑for期货prices at lower levels. In the short term, prices may震荡整理within the range of 4,700 to 4,820 yuan per ton. However, caution is warranted regarding potential回调pressure from the延续of the downstream consumption off-season,集中到港of imported soybeans,仓单pressure, and profit-taking by funds. Coupled with the drag from CBOT soybeans retreating from highs, overall market多空博弈has intensified, with insufficient动能for a significant单边上涨.
Strategy Neutral
Risk None
Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Key Data Price Trends In the futures market, the peanut contract PK2610 closed at 8,140 yuan per ton this week, down 72 yuan week-on-week, a decrease of 0.88%. In the现货market, the basis in Nanyang, Henan was PK10-540, up 72 from the previous week; in Linyi, Shandong, the basis was PK10-1540, up 72; and in Hengshui, Hebei, the basis was PK10-240, up 72.
Peanut Supply and Demand According to Mysteel survey data, as of May 21, the统计peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 321,155 tons, an increase of 13,930 tons or 4.53% from the previous week, indicating continued inventory accumulation. Oil mill arrivals: Some medium and large oil mills nationwide have停机停收, while others are purchasing as needed. Arrivals increased slightly. For the week ending May 21, the effective arrival volume of domestic peanuts at sample oil mills was approximately 61,320 tons, an increase of 670 tons from 60,650 tons the previous week. Commercial kernel market trading: Food processing enterprises are primarily focused on消化库存. Wholesale markets are purchasing and selling随购随销, cautiously囤货. Screening enterprises in producing areas are压价采购and谨慎拿货. Overall交投remains weak. On the demand side, oil mill operating rates fell to 32.27%, down 1.16 percentage points week-on-week. Multiple medium and large oil mills have entered停机停收states. Food enterprises are making small订单采购based on刚性需求, focusing on去库. Traders have low接货意愿, and commercial kernel流通性is insufficient. Overall, the market presents a格局of持续走弱oil demand,明显拖累from commercial kernels, and weak supply and demand.
Market Analysis This week, overall peanut supply across the country was宽松. Remaining stocks in various producing areas are being持续消耗. In Henan producing areas, grassroots余货are nearly depleted, with冷库货源dominating circulation. In Northeast producing areas,农户上货has increased, and持货商are让利出货. Planting area in Hebei and Northeast producing areas has seen a小幅增加. Sowing of wheat-stubble peanuts is about to commence. Oil mill operating rates continue to decline, with many mills停机停收. Arrivals of oil-type peanuts increased slightly. Raw material peanut inventories continue to accumulate, and peanut oil inventories have小幅走高. Demand for commercial kernels remains低迷, with weak pre-Dragon Boat Festival备货. Food enterprises and wholesale markets have偏弱买盘, mostly focusing on消化库存and small刚性需求补货orders. Overall交投is清淡, and traders are谨慎in接货. In summary,宽松supply and疲软demand dominate the market, with only局部惜售by farmers providing微弱支撑. National peanut prices may震荡偏弱in the coming week. Oil demand is in its off-season, with some oil mills implementing小幅降价. Peanut oil报价may偏稳运行, with实单议价空间expanding. Demand from the养殖sector is average, soybean meal supply is充足, and peanut meal prices are expected to be稳中偏弱.
Strategy Neutral
Risk None
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