Aphria’s Q3 Woes Only Heighten Problems As Merger Looms

InvestorPlace2021-04-16

APHA stock has a merger, a terrible earnings report and political rhetoric all muddling its investment case Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) stockis facing a challenging period following its third quarter ...

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Comments

Jason1205
2021-04-17
Jason1205
爲什麼是2021第三季度財報？
Wangal
2021-04-16
Wangal
[Cry]
Flingstar
2021-04-16
Flingstar
Still an under valued stock with the potential.
Airlee
2021-04-16
Airlee
nice
GM33
2021-04-16
GM33
Comment and like

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The news was bad, and as a result share prices plunged. Next, on April 14, Aphria will hold a special meeting for shareholders to approvethe Aphria-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY) merger.\nWhile the merger is promising, an investment into the merged companies isn’t totally clear cut.\nAPHA Stock: Q3 Follows Strong Q2\nAphria had a record Q2 from a top-line perspective: gross revenues for adult-use cannabis hit $72.1 million CAD, up 149% from 2019 quarter-over-over. This report marked the seventh straight quarter in which Aphria increased revenue.\nNet revenues hit $160.5 million CAD for the quarter. APHA stock climbed in the weeks following the positive news. Analysts were optimistic that Aphria’s Q3 earnings reports would show increased revenues in the following quarter.\nUnfortunately, analyst expectations of Aphria were not met when the earnings came out.\nPrior to the Q3 earnings release seven analysts with coverage of Aphria had given revenue guidance for Aphria. They had however revised their revenue estimates for Q3 downward since the beginning of the year. The downgrades would prove appropriate, however they would prove inaccurate. The analysts’ mean estimate began at $175.58 million CAD, and dropped to $170.66 million CAD prior to April 12.\nLikewise, those same analysts had revised EBITDA estimates downward.\nOn April 12, Aphria’s earnings report showed that Aphria hit a meager $153.6 million CAD. That figure was far below even the downgraded analyst projections. The markets were not interested in management’s explanations for the miss, and share prices immediately dropped.\nUpcoming Merger\nAphria and Tilray are Canadian cannabis CPG companies. The obvious benefit of the merger is its complementary nature. The combination increases the scale and scope of the merged companies’ business. The combined company will boast an end-to-end supply chain. The pandemic has reiterated the importance of strong supply chains, so that’s a positive.\nBut the company is really aimed at the U.S. market and aspires to establish a dominant footprint there. While the regulatory framework is opening on a state-by-state basis, Aphria and Tilray are more concerned with the federal repeal. That federal repeal of cannabis is a complex one. A ballot shows that, while 68% of Americans support making marijuana legal, and 90% support medical marijuana, the political implications on a federal level aren’t so clear.\nThe merged company is very much at the mercy of this ongoing saga. One thing is clear though: the speed of cannabis adoption and the profitability flowing from such companies has been slower than hoped.\nThat will continue to affect these two firms and the proposed merger. Investors want to know what the net benefit of the combination is. There is good news there.\nBusiness Accretion Expectations\nAphria seems to be trustworthy in regards to the due diligence it undertook in evaluating the proposed Aphria-Tilray merger. Back in January, when Aphria released its Q2 financial results, it gave guidance regarding the accretion value of the merger. The company stated thatthe closing of the Tilray business combination will generate value, including our over $100 million CAD anticipated pre-tax synergies.\nThis guidance was independently verified on April 5. Independent Proxy Advisory firm ISS confirmed the numbers:“The strategic rationale appears sound as the proposed transaction will improve the scale and footprint of the combined entity. Importantly, the combined company is anticipated to deliver US$78 million (C$100 million) of pre-tax cost synergies across several areas.”\nThis is a minor detail, but the overall thrust is two-fold. Aphria doesn’t look to have been blowing smoke, and the merger does indeed increase value.\nAPHA Stock: The Takeaway\nThere are too many variables to consider to invest in APHA stock right now. The U.S. market that the combined company seeks to capitalize on remains fractured. I think the stock is a sell, as cannabis news continues to disappoint overall, and Aphria’s Q3 earnings reiterate larger concerns.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":370557499,"gmtCreate":1618615170511,"gmtModify":1704713357674,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"htmlText":"爲什麼是2021第三季度財報？","listText":"爲什麼是2021第三季度財報？","text":"爲什麼是2021第三季度財報？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370557499","repostId":1105244586,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":370311323,"gmtCreate":1618551261862,"gmtModify":1704712617059,"author":{"id":"3575580168546148","authorId":"3575580168546148","name":"Wangal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800f70a7feba8b3bc44da842ec3567a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575580168546148","authorIdStr":"3575580168546148"},"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370311323","repostId":1105244586,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370988860,"gmtCreate":1618543593350,"gmtModify":1704712492966,"author":{"id":"3578345942994993","authorId":"3578345942994993","name":"Flingstar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5881ba7d0f2985170054c89f5b7fda17","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578345942994993","authorIdStr":"3578345942994993"},"htmlText":"Still an under valued stock with the potential. &nbsp;","listText":"Still an under valued stock with the potential. &nbsp;","text":"Still an under valued stock with the potential.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370988860","repostId":1105244586,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370933162,"gmtCreate":1618541584556,"gmtModify":1704712463489,"author":{"id":"3570514907188769","authorId":"3570514907188769","name":"Airlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f498172d13578b027d022139a285cc1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570514907188769","authorIdStr":"3570514907188769"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370933162","repostId":1105244586,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":370997985,"gmtCreate":1618541307847,"gmtModify":1704712459122,"author":{"id":"3569478069644531","authorId":"3569478069644531","name":"GM33","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93e233e9c84746e3cbd703306142c4eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569478069644531","authorIdStr":"3569478069644531"},"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370997985","repostId":1105244586,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1105244586"}