CMSC International has released a research report expressing the view that LAOPU GOLD (06181) will face a turning point in 2026, with revenue growth expected to plummet sharply from 220% in 2025 to an anticipated approximately 30% in 2026. The brokerage initiated coverage on LAOPU GOLD with a "Reduce" rating and a target price of HK$825.5, arguing that a 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times is excessively high. It believes that any cooling in gold market sentiment would expose the stock to significant and asymmetric downside risks, and therefore values the company at a 16 times P/E ratio. The report contends that the company's current revenue is heavily reliant on FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) marketing tactics, which capitalize on consumer anxiety about missing opportunities, discounts, or popular products, rather than the organic sales growth characteristic of genuine luxury goods peers. Simultaneously, the quality of the company's profits is also deteriorating. The brokerage noted that the company's store expansion plan for this year is relatively conservative, with a strategic shift in focus from expansion to improving efficiency, which limits the potential for further physical scale expansion in the domestic market. Furthermore, the annual sales of the Beijing SKP flagship store have already reached 3 billion yuan, indicating that the ceiling for volume-driven same-store sales growth is continuously declining. The company's current growth is primarily dependent on price increases, a strategy that may lead to longer and deeper "demand vacuum" periods following implementation. Moreover, management's strategic anchoring of the consolidated gross profit margin at around 40% to balance demand implies that there is no further room for margin expansion beyond expectations. Consequently, profitability becomes entirely dependent on sales volume turnover, leading to continuously rising execution risks.
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