CICC: PVDF Price Rally Emerges, Lithium Battery Sector Outlook Bright for 2026

According to industry analysis, CICC released a research report stating that assuming production levels remain flat month-on-month in November and December, China's lithium battery-grade PVDF demand is projected to reach approximately 78,700 tons in 2025 (YoY +65.4%). If the battery sector maintains the same growth rate in 2026, lithium battery-grade PVDF demand could hit 110,000 tons. Strong demand for lithium batteries is expected to persist, potentially driving further PVDF price increases. The report recommends DONGYUE GROUP (00189), Haohua Chemical Science&Technology Corp.,Ltd. (600378.SH), and Zhejiang Juhua Co.,Ltd. (600160.SH). Key insights from CICC include:

**Industry Update** Data from BaiChuan YingFu shows that as of November 20, the mainstream market price for PVDF rose from CNY 49,000/ton in early November to CNY 52,000/ton. According to Xinluo Lithium Battery data, the average market prices for PVDF used in lithium iron phosphate (LFP), ternary, and separator coatings stood at CNY 60,000, CNY 119,500, and CNY 182,000/ton, respectively, up CNY 3,500, CNY 0, and CNY 10,000/ton from mid-year lows, signaling the beginning of a PVDF price uptrend.

**Strong Lithium Battery Demand May Cause Temporary Supply-Demand Mismatch** PVDF applications span lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coatings, and water membranes. Xinluo data indicates China's LFP battery installations totaled 1,240GWh from January to October 2025, while ternary battery installations reached 265GWh. Assuming flat production in November and December, with 45 tons of PVDF consumed per GWh of LFP batteries and 25 tons per GWh of ternary batteries, China's lithium battery-grade PVDF demand is estimated at 78,700 tons in 2025 (YoY +65.4%). If growth continues at this pace in 2026, demand could reach 110,000 tons. BaiChuan YingFu data shows current PVDF industry capacity utilization at around 70%, with lithium battery-grade PVDF likely nearing full production. This suggests potential supply-demand imbalances in 2026.

**Actual New Capacity May Fall Short of Expectations** Following the PVDF price surge in 2020–2021, cross-sector entrants increased. BaiChuan YingFu reports existing PVDF effective capacity at ~180,000 tons, with nominal new capacity additions of 157,000 tons. Similar to lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), PVDF faces a gap between nominal and effective new capacity due to high barriers in lithium battery-grade supply chain integration. Key suppliers include Funolin, Dongyang Sunshine, DONGYUE GROUP, Haohua Chemical Science&Technology Corp.,Ltd., Huayi Group (SanAifu), Zhejiang Juhua Co.,Ltd., Lianchuang, Shandong Deyi, and Ningxia Fluorpeak. The report highlights consolidation trends in lithium battery material supply chains, with effective capacity expansions likely concentrated among existing suppliers, potentially leading to lower-than-expected supply growth.