JPMorgan Raises Q4 and Q1 Brent Spot Crude Price Forecasts

Deep News10-14 08:11

JPMorgan said in a research report that it has raised its Brent spot crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 by US$5 per barrel.

The current fourth-quarter forecast is US$105 per barrel, while the first-quarter forecast for next year is US$100 per barrel.

Analysts including Martijn Rats said that although Middle East export volumes have increased, overall market supply, including volumes supplied to domestic refineries, remains far below last year's levels.

In addition, onshore crude oil inventories continue to decline and are at multi-year lows.

Tanker attacks have increased again, reaching about 11 per week over the past two weeks, compared with fewer than 4 per week in July and August.

"Attacks on Saudi infrastructure have increased. Crude oil exports are still continuing, but the related uncertainty remains high."

Higher freight rates are also supporting Brent crude prices.

"Compared with long-distance crude that still needs to be used to meet demand, Brent crude shipped to Northwest Europe has a cost advantage of US$10 to US$15 per barrel."

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