Gold futures on the COMEX opened higher but closed lower on August 3rd, continuing their range-bound trading pattern, settling at $4,110.9 per ounce, up just 0.09%. Meanwhile, SHFE gold futures in overnight trading opened lower and fluctuated, closing at 882.12 yuan per gram, down 0.11%.
The U.S. July ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 55.6, surpassing both the market expectation of 53.9 and the previous month's reading of 53.8, marking its highest level since May 2022. This indicates the manufacturing sector remains in an expansionary state. Key sub-indices showed strength: the production index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021; the new orders index increased to 56.7, signaling continued strengthening in business demand; and the employment index reached 52.8, marking the first time since September 2023 that it has shown an increase in manufacturing employment.
Given the clear recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with improvements in orders, production, and employment, concerns about a rapid economic slowdown are likely to diminish. This strengthens the case for maintaining higher interest rates, which will likely continue to put downward pressure on gold prices.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are underway, with the first phase focusing on reopening the Strait and the second phase addressing denuclearization. Amid strong U.S. economic data and frequent geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, oil price volatility has increased. The U.S. dollar index has temporarily halted its decline, while gold prices remain persistently weak, trading at the bottom of its range with a bearish undertone.
In the near term, gold prices appear insensitive to positive news, exhibiting bottom-range trading without signs of stopping their decline. Therefore, the overall outlook remains bearish, and it is not advisable to blindly buy the dip.
Comments