The dramatic weakening of the non-farm payrolls data has ignited a fresh upward wave for gold prices, successfully breaking through the $4,400 key support level and reigniting the bullish momentum.
The market's primary focus is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, with cooling employment figures continuously lowering the probability of rate hikes. This downward pressure on real yields is driving a sustained recovery in the valuation of the non-yielding asset. The market is currently in a critical data window period, awaiting the release of the U.S. July CPI data for direction. If inflation continues to retreat, expectations for rate cuts will further strengthen, supporting gold's upward movement. Conversely, if inflation proves sticky, the bullish rally may face a phase of profit-taking.
On a long-term scale, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, coupled with geopolitical safe-haven demand, continue to limit the downside potential of gold prices, establishing a solid medium-term support floor.
From a technical structure perspective, the daily chart shows that gold has effectively broken out of its previous consolidation range, forming a standard bullish pattern with higher highs and higher lows. Short-term moving averages are diverging upwards in a bullish alignment, with prices firmly trading above the moving average system. The medium-term trend has shifted from consolidation to bullish. The daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that the incremental buying momentum is weakening after the recent rally, indicating a need for a period of consolidation to absorb profit-taking. The MACD maintains a bullish crossover above the zero line, and while the red bars are slightly contracting, no bearish crossover signal has appeared, meaning the conditions for a trend reversal have not yet been met. The $4,320 level serves as the core trendline watershed for this rally; as long as this level is not effectively breached, the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
On the 4-hour chart, the ascending channel structure remains intact, with gold prices holding above the channel's upper boundary, preserving the primary bullish structure. However, after the continuous surge, the indicators have shown signs of weakening, with the MACD red bars shrinking steadily, forming a minor bearish divergence pattern. This suggests that a sustained, accelerated rally is unlikely in the short term, and the market will likely focus on volatile consolidation and pullback accumulation. Until prices decisively break below the channel's lower bound, all pullbacks are considered healthy corrections within the uptrend, and it is not appropriate to conclude that the trend has ended.
Key reference price levels: short-term resistance at $4,450; a decisive break above this level could see a move towards the $4,490-$4,520 zone. Short-term support lies at $4,380-$4,390, with core support below at $4,320-$4,340. The $4,300 level is a critical lifeline for the bullish trend; an effective break below it would undermine the current strong rally.
The trading strategy recommends acknowledging the clear long-term bullish trend and refraining from blindly trying to pick a top. As the price is in an acceleration phase, directly chasing highs offers a poor risk-reward ratio. A prudent approach is to wait for the price to pull back to the support zone, stabilize, and then look for long entry opportunities.
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