Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has stated that it is a reasonable possibility for oil prices to remain around $80 to $100 per barrel over the next three to six months. However, he cautioned that prices could surge to $170 per barrel if geopolitical tensions escalate significantly. Sustained high energy prices may impact economic data released later this year. Solomon suggested that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into a recession could increase abruptly, depending on how the U.S. government responds to the Iran conflict via social media. Goldman Sachs economists currently estimate a roughly 30% probability of a U.S. recession this year, though Solomon noted that the baseline scenario under "benign conditions" is around 15%. Speaking at the Paley Center for Media in Manhattan, Solomon remarked that the risk of an economic downturn could change dramatically "with just one tweet." He also pointed out that current recession forecasts remain relatively low. These comments reflect a broader reality in financial markets, where frequent posts by U.S. leaders on social media platforms can trigger significant market volatility.
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