On December 11, gold experienced a rebound after testing lows yesterday, though the fluctuations were smaller than expected. The Asian session opened with a slight decline, and after breaking below 4200, prices mostly oscillated beneath this level, hitting a low of 4181 USD by early morning. However, a rapid recovery followed, pushing prices to a daily high of 4238 USD. Gold ultimately closed at 4227 USD, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart.
In the early hours of Thursday (December 11), the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This marked the third rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly stated that the next move is "highly unlikely" to be a rate hike, as it is not part of the committee's baseline scenario. However, the statement introduced new wording—"will carefully assess incoming data when considering any further adjustments"—which is typically interpreted as a signal of entering a policy observation phase. Consequently, the market views this decision as a "cautious pause" or a "dovish hold."
The Fed's latest "dot plot" median projection indicates policymakers anticipate only one rate cut in 2026. In contrast, interest rate futures traders are more dovish, pricing in two potential cuts for 2026. This divergence suggests that any data pointing to economic slowdown could fuel bets on further easing, benefiting gold.
Technically, gold remains in a high-range consolidation after the rate cut, showing strength but requiring caution against short-term pullbacks. Resistance is first seen at the 4240-4250 zone; a decisive break above this level could open the path toward 4280-4300 USD or higher. Conversely, support lies at the 4200 mark, and a sustained drop below this level may trigger a deeper correction.
In summary, with the Fed's rate cut now realized, the market lacks clear directional cues. In the near term, gold remains supported by a weaker USD but faces potential volatility due to internal policy disagreements and profit-taking sentiment. A range-trading strategy is advisable—preferring "sell on rallies, buy on dips" near key levels while avoiding middle-range entries.
Intraday Trading Suggestions: Gold: Sell at 4238-4240, stop loss at 4250, target 4200-4180. If prices break and hold above 4250, consider buying on pullbacks targeting 4300.
Key Economic Data & Events for December 11, 2025 (Thursday): 21:30 GMT: US Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending December 6) 21:30 GMT: US Trade Balance (September) 23:00 GMT: US Wholesale Sales MoM (September)
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