The gold price experienced a rebound after finding a bottom on July 9th. It opened with a slight decline during the Asian session, falling to $1,4053 before beginning a recovery. The European session saw it break through the $1,4100 mark, prompting the abandonment of short positions. However, the subsequent gains were limited, with the price largely fluctuating within a $20 range above that level. Ultimately, gold closed at $1,4123, finishing the day with a positive candlestick.
On Friday, July 10th, gold finally caught its breath after being pressured for three consecutive days. Many investors may wonder: is this the bottom, or merely a "dead cat bounce"? The situation between the US and Iran has been changing almost daily. Just the day before, former President Trump had announced at a NATO summit that the US-Iran understanding memorandum was "over" and ordered a new round of strikes. Yet, the narrative shifted yesterday.
Trump stated that Iran had "called not long ago, they are very eager to make a deal." Mediating parties like Qatar and Pakistan are also actively promoting de-escalation. A US official revealed that diplomatic efforts are still ongoing, and the US side "has always been willing to pause after a strike" to allow space for diplomacy.
This means the market has experienced a complete cycle within just two days: from "deal over" to "escalation" and back to "possible return to talks." Consequently, oil prices retreated from their highs, with WTI crude falling approximately 2.65% to $71.57. US Treasury yields fell accordingly, the US dollar came under pressure, and a window for a gold rebound opened. This "fight-and-talk" rhythm suggests that geopolitical factors provide a safety net for gold prices, with buyers emerging on significant dips. However, relying solely on this logic for a major rally is difficult, as the market has become desensitized to "verbal de-escalation."
Technical Analysis Perspective
From a technical standpoint, support around $1,4110-$1,4095 is key for the day. A pullback is permissible, but the price should not remain below $1,4100 for an extended period. Conditions exist for the rebound to extend during the session, yet significant overhead resistance remains. Initial focus is on the battle around $1,4030-35. A break above that would shift attention to the $1,4170-80 and $1,4200 areas.
Overall Trading Strategy
In summary, today's spot gold action represents an oversold technical correction following Wednesday's sharp decline, not the restart of a major bull market. The $1,4050 area is supported by central bank and physical buying, while the $1,4160 area is capped by Federal Reserve hawkishness and trapped positions. For the remainder of the week, price action is likely to be a back-and-forth struggle between $1,4080 and $1,4160. Therefore, investors are advised to trade quickly within this range.
Consequently, the following intraday trading suggestion is offered:
Gold: Operate within the $1,4080-$1,4150 range. Use a 10-point stop-loss and target a 50-60 point profit.
Key Economic Data and Events for Today: Friday, July 10, 2026
01:30 - Speech by the 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President, Logan.
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