CICC has initiated coverage on UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HK$138.00, representing a 26.8% upside potential from the current price. The valuation is based on a forward P/S multiple of 18x for 2027. Currently, the stock trades at 27x and 18x P/S for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Potential catalysts include the launch of new humanoid robot products and bulk orders from major clients.
As a pioneer in embodied AI robotics, UBTECH ROBOTICS is expected to generate revenues of RMB2.0 billion and RMB2.7 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The company has accumulated strong technological expertise in humanoid robotics and is leading in mass production.
Key highlights from CICC's report: - **First-mover in humanoid robotics**: Founded in 2012, the company ranked third in China's intelligent robotics solutions industry by revenue in 2022 and went public in Hong Kong in 2023. H1 2025 revenue reached RMB620 million (+28% YoY), though the firm remains in an investment phase as humanoid robotics technology continues to evolve. - **Strong order momentum for Walker series**: As of early December 2025, cumulative public orders for its flagship Walker robots reached RMB1.3 billion, exceeding management expectations. Mass production is accelerating, with improvements in data collection and industrial handling functionalities. - **Market leadership in education robotics**: The company holds a 22.5% share in China's educational robotics market (2022 revenue basis). - **Consumer robotics expansion**: Revenue from consumer robots grew from RMB59 million in 2020 to RMB477 million in 2024, a 72.4% CAGR, driven by new product launches and overseas channel expansion. - **High R&D investment**: R&D personnel account for 40.5% of total staff, with annual R&D spending between RMB400-500 million. CICC believes the company maintains a first-mover advantage in embodied AI model training and hardware innovation.
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